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1 # MNW Business Assumptions — Machine-Readable Source of Truth
2 #
3 # Status: draft / not yet consumed by tooling. Target consumer is a future
4 # docengine feature that substitutes `{{ key }}` placeholders in markdown
5 # at build time. See `MNW/server/docs/todo.md` § "Docengine — assumption
6 # substitution" for the proposed implementation.
7 #
8 # Until that feature ships, this file is informational. The canonical
9 # values still live in the markdown docs listed in each section header.
10 #
11 # Conventions:
12 # - All currency in USD unless suffixed `_eur`.
13 # - All time in months unless suffixed `_days` / `_years`.
14 # - Percentages as decimals (0.029 not 2.9).
15 # - Each section names the canonical markdown source.
16 # - Open decisions tagged `# OPEN:` — these are placeholder values
17 # pending founder approval per `pricing.md` §7 and `reserve_policy.md` §8.
18 #
19 # As of: 2026-05-16
20 # Last manual-verified: 2026-05-16
21
22
23 # ─── Expenses (canonical: expenses.md) ────────────────────────────────────
24 [expenses]
25 F_monthly = 580 # Total fixed monthly burn (rounded from $579.08)
26 F_monthly_exact = 579.08
27 as_of = "2026-05-16"
28
29 [expenses.lines]
30 hetzner = 31.00
31 coworking_industrious = 332.00
32 claude_code = 200.00
33 fastmail = 5.00
34 domains = 2.00
35 cloudflare = 0.00
36 postmark = 0.00
37 apple_developer_amortized = 8.25 # $99/yr ÷ 12
38 co_llc_periodic_amortized = 0.83 # $10/yr ÷ 12
39
40
41 # ─── Stripe fees (canonical: stripe_fees.md) ──────────────────────────────
42 [stripe]
43 percent = 0.029 # US standard online card
44 fixed = 0.30 # Per-transaction flat fee, USD
45 dispute_fee = 15.00 # Charged once at dispute creation
46 instant_payout_us_pct = 0.015 # US/AU/NZ/AE region (was incorrectly cited as flat 1%)
47 instant_payout_intl_pct = 0.010 # CA/EU/UK/SG/NO/HK/MY region
48 instant_payout_min = 0.50
49 chargeback_protection_pct = 0.004 # Stripe Radar add-on (fraud-only)
50 tax_pct = 0.005 # Stripe Tax per transaction
51
52 [stripe.connect_standard]
53 # What MNW currently uses for creator subs.
54 per_account_fee = 0
55 per_payout_fee = 0
56 payout_volume_pct = 0
57
58 [stripe.connect_express]
59 # Reference only — not used by MNW for creators.
60 per_active_account = 2.00
61 per_payout = 0.25
62 payout_volume_pct = 0.0025
63
64 [stripe.instant_payout]
65 # Nested form of the flat instant_payout_* keys above; substituted into
66 # legal/payments.md and guide/stripe.md as {{ stripe.instant_payout.* }}.
67 # Kept alongside the flat form for backward compatibility.
68 us_pct = 0.015
69 intl_pct = 0.010
70 min_usd = 0.50
71
72
73 # ─── Policy commitments (canonical: guarantees.md) ───────────────────────
74 # Time-based commitments that appear verbatim across guarantees.md, pricing.md,
75 # tiers.md, faq.md, fan-guide.md, account-lifecycle.md, generative-ai.md, and
76 # how-we-work.md. Semantically distinct even where the number matches today.
77 [policy]
78 buyer_access_days = 90 # guarantees §Buyer Access — post-close fan download window
79 shutdown_notice_days = 90 # guarantees §Shutdown, §Continuity
80 price_change_notice_days = 90 # guarantees §Price Stability, pricing.md
81 grandfather_months = 12 # guarantees §Price Stability
82 cancellation_grace_days = 30 # tiers.md §Cancellation, getting-started.md
83 content_archive_months = 12 # guarantees §Content Archive (planned)
84 generative_ai_notice_days = 30 # generative-ai.md §Governance
85
86
87 # ─── Uptime (canonical: guarantees.md §Availability) ─────────────────────
88 [uptime]
89 target_pct = 0.995
90 target_downtime_hours_year = 44 # (1 - 0.995) × 8760 ≈ 43.8, rounded up
91
92
93 # ─── Broadcasts (canonical: tiers.md, mailing-lists.md) ──────────────────
94 [broadcasts]
95 per_day = 1
96 recipients_per_send = 10000
97 # Display string with thousands separator; docengine has no thousands filter
98 # so the display form lives here (same pattern as `cohort.cap_display`).
99 recipients_per_send_display = "10,000"
100
101
102 # ─── Fan+ (canonical: fan-plus.md) ───────────────────────────────────────
103 [fan_plus]
104 monthly_price_usd = 8
105 # Per-fan monthly credit allowance; funded by Fan+ subscription revenue,
106 # not per-account overhead. Fan-only — creators don't receive it.
107 monthly_credit_usd = 5
108
109
110 # ─── Hetzner prices (canonical: hetzner_prices.md) ────────────────────────
111 [hetzner]
112 fx_eur_to_usd = 1.085 # Verify when FX moves >5%
113
114 # Compute SKUs (EUR/mo)
115 ccx13_eur = 13.10 # 2 dedicated vCPU / 8 GB / 80 GB — production
116 ccx23_eur = 30.00 # 4 dedicated vCPU / 16 GB / 160 GB
117 cpx11_eur = 3.85 # 2 shared vCPU / 2 GB / 40 GB
118 cpx31_eur = 13.10 # 4 shared vCPU / 8 GB / 160 GB
119 cx22_eur = 4.59 # 2 shared vCPU / 4 GB / 40 GB
120
121 # Storage and bandwidth
122 object_storage_eur_per_tb = 5.99
123 object_storage_included_tb = 1
124 egress_eur_per_tb_overage = 1.00
125 egress_included_per_server_tb = 1
126 volume_eur_per_gb = 0.044
127 ipv4_eur = 0.60
128 backup_pct_of_server = 0.20
129
130
131 # ─── Tier prices (canonical: pricing.md) ──────────────────────────────────
132 [tiers.founding]
133 # Founder pricing — exactly 50% of standard sticker, locked for life. Active
134 # until the founder window closes (1,000 creators OR exit-beta, whichever
135 # first). Decision 2026-05-18; raised to 8/12/18/30 on 2026-05-31 to track
136 # the standard-tier raise; reset to Refined-A (4/7/9/12) on 2026-07-08 per
137 # pricing_interrogation_2026_07.md §6.
138 basic = 4
139 small_files = 7
140 big_files = 9
141 everything = 12
142
143 [tiers.standard]
144 # Refined-A sticker — set 2026-07-08 per pricing_interrogation_2026_07.md §6.
145 # Priced against residency-scale labor ($41.5/hr Y1 support, ~$50/hr blended
146 # engineering) rather than the earlier $80/hr market rate, with right-sized
147 # Basic (10GB) and Small Files (100GB) envelopes. Founder rate is exactly
148 # 50% of these. History: 16/24/36/60 (2026-05-31), 12/18/24/40 (earlier).
149 basic = 8
150 small_files = 14
151 big_files = 18
152 everything = 24
153
154 # ─── Tier envelope limits (storage caps + file size caps) ────────────────
155 # Per-tier file-size envelope. Public-facing copy substitutes these via
156 # {{ tier_limits.* }} so the toml is the single source of truth and a future
157 # limit change is a one-line edit. Stored as display strings (no NBSP, no
158 # trailing periods) because that's the form the docs always need.
159 #
160 # `[tier_bytes]` below carries the same envelopes as machine-readable integer
161 # byte counts — that's the form Rust needs for upload gating, storage-cap
162 # accounting, and the metrics fill-ratio SQL. Docengine validates that each
163 # `tier_bytes.<k>` parses back to the matching `tier_limits.<k>` string, so
164 # a drift between the two forms fails at boot instead of shipping to prod.
165 [tier_limits]
166 # Refined-A envelopes (2026-07-08): Basic shrunk to 5MB/10GB and Small Files
167 # total shrunk to 100GB to make the tier ladder honest to actual content shape
168 # rather than "which tier gives me headroom I'll never use." Big Files and
169 # Everything envelopes unchanged.
170 basic_per_file = "5MB"
171 basic_total = "10GB"
172 small_files_per_file = "500MB"
173 small_files_total = "100GB"
174 big_files_per_file = "20GB"
175 big_files_total = "500GB"
176 everything_per_file = "20GB"
177 everything_total = "500GB"
178
179 [tier_bytes]
180 # Binary units (KB = 1024 B). Must match [tier_limits] display strings above.
181 basic_per_file = 5242880 # 5 MB
182 basic_total = 10737418240 # 10 GB
183 small_files_per_file = 524288000 # 500 MB
184 small_files_total = 107374182400 # 100 GB
185 big_files_per_file = 21474836480 # 20 GB
186 big_files_total = 536870912000 # 500 GB
187 everything_per_file = 21474836480 # 20 GB
188 everything_total = 536870912000 # 500 GB
189
190
191 [annual_discount]
192 # Annual billing is 10% off the monthly × 12 total at every tier, founder
193 # and standard. Two-digit discount, clean pitch. Decision 2026-05-18.
194 #
195 # What this actually covers:
196 # - Stripe per-transaction fees ($0.30 each, charged 12x for monthly vs 1x
197 # for annual): saves MNW ~$3.30/yr per customer regardless of tier.
198 # - The 2.9% percent fee is identical either way (a wash).
199 # - At Basic, 10% off ≈ the literal Stripe saving (close to pass-through).
200 # - At Everything, 10% off ($36/yr) > the Stripe saving ($3.30/yr); MNW
201 # absorbs the difference (~$15/yr per Everything customer at founder
202 # pricing, ~$32/yr per Everything customer at sticker) as a cashflow +
203 # reduced-billing-failure benefit. Defensible but not pure pass-through.
204 #
205 # Computed values (monthly × 12 × 0.9, rounded to nearest dollar):
206 # Founder: $86 / $130 / $194 / $324
207 # Standard: $173 / $259 / $389 / $648
208 multiplier = 0.9
209 months_equivalent_free = 1.2 # 10% of 12 months
210
211
212 # ─── Tier mix (canonical: tier_mix.md) ────────────────────────────────────
213 [tier_mix.assumed]
214 # Pre-launch placeholder distribution. A4 in assumptions.md.
215 # Updated monthly from SQL once creators exist.
216 basic_pct = 0.40
217 small_files_pct = 0.30
218 big_files_pct = 0.20
219 everything_pct = 0.10
220
221
222 # ─── Reserve policy (canonical: reserve_policy.md) ────────────────────────
223 [reserve]
224 # OPEN: all values in this block per reserve_policy.md §8
225
226 T_fixed_months = 12 # OPEN: §8 item 1
227 S_legal = 50000 # OPEN: §8 item 2 — pre-quote
228 S_shock = 5000 # OPEN: §8 item 3
229
230 R_opp = 10000 # OPEN: §8 item 4
231 rho_annual = 0.50 # OPEN: §8 item 5 — max % of R_opp/yr
232 rho_incident = 0.25 # OPEN: §8 item 6 — max % of R_opp/decision
233
234 surplus_split_reserve = 0.20 # OPEN: §8 item 7 — steady state
235 surplus_split_earnback = 0.80
236 # Sum must equal 1.0
237
238 transition_buffer_pct = 1.00 # OPEN: §8 item 10 — multiplier on R_cap before personal-to-company transition
239
240
241 # ─── Cohort (canonical: pricing.md) ───────────────────────────────────────
242 [cohort]
243 # OPEN: all values per pricing.md §7
244
245 cap_count = 1000 # Decided 2026-05-31; raised from 500 to match public copy in tiers.md / pricing.md.
246 cap_display = "1,000" # Display string with thousands separator; substituted via {{ cohort.cap_display }}. Keep in sync with cap_count.
247 cap_months = 12 # OPEN: §7 item 1 — or first M months (whichever first)
248 lock_duration = "lifetime" # OPEN: §7 item 4 — lifetime-of-subscription
249 # Counting rule (cumulative vs active) — see sops/founding-cohort-tracking.md, founder decision pending
250
251
252 # ─── Per-creator marginal cost inputs (canonical: assumptions.md A1-A10) ─
253 # All currently unmeasured — pre-launch placeholders.
254 [creator_marginal]
255 storage_basic_gb = 0.05 # A1: ~50 MB (right-sized 2026-07-08 alongside 10GB Basic envelope)
256 storage_small_files_gb = 2 # A2: ~2 GB
257 storage_big_files_gb = 10 # A3: ~10 GB
258 storage_everything_gb = 30 # A10: tier-dependent, placeholder
259 storage_cost_per_gb_per_month = 0.0065 # = €5.99/TB-mo × FX
260 egress_origin_hit_assumed_pct = 0.10 # A6: Cloudflare cache absorbs ~90% (assumed)
261 chargeback_rate_tier_subs = 0.001 # A12: 0.1% for recurring (lower than one-shot)
262
263
264 # ─── Derived values (for docengine feature; NOT stored — computed) ────────
265 #
266 # These are documented here for the future implementation. The docengine
267 # feature should compute them from the values above. Listed as commented
268 # pseudo-code; actual implementation belongs in Rust.
269 #
270 # R_cap = T_fixed_months · F_monthly + S_legal + S_shock
271 # = 12 · 580 + 50000 + 5000 = 61960
272 #
273 # ARPU_founding = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.founding[k])
274 # = 0.4·8 + 0.3·12 + 0.2·18 + 0.1·30 = 13.40
275 #
276 # ARPU_standard = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.standard[k])
277 # = 0.4·16 + 0.3·24 + 0.2·36 + 0.1·60 = 26.80
278 #
279 # stripe_fee(amount) = stripe.percent · amount + stripe.fixed
280 # stripe_fee_basic_std = 0.029 · 16 + 0.30 = 0.76
281 # stripe_fee_small_std = 0.029 · 24 + 0.30 = 1.00
282 # stripe_fee_big_std = 0.029 · 36 + 0.30 = 1.34
283 # stripe_fee_ev_std = 0.029 · 60 + 0.30 = 2.04
284 #
285 # break_even(rate_class) = F_monthly / (ARPU_{rate_class} − marginal_avg)
286 # break_even_standard = 580 / (26.80 − 1) ≈ 22.5 creators
287 # break_even_founding = 580 / (13.40 − 1) ≈ 46.8 creators
288 #
289 # surplus(N, rate_class) = N · (ARPU − marginal) − F_monthly
290 # surplus(100, "standard") = 100 · 25.80 − 580 = 2000
291 # surplus(500, "standard") = 500 · 25.80 − 580 = 12320
292 #
293 # fill_time_months(N) = (R_cap + R_opp) / surplus(N, "standard")
294 # fill_time(100) = 71960 / 2000 ≈ 36 mo
295 # fill_time(500) = 71960 / 12320 ≈ 6 mo
296 #
297 # infra_cost(tier, N) = storage_{tier}_gb · storage_cost_per_gb_per_month
298 # + egress_share + stripe_fee(price) + F_monthly/N
299 #
300 # Validation rules the build step should enforce:
301 # - 100 < F_monthly < 10000 (typo guard)
302 # - sum(tier_mix.*) = 1.00 (tier mix must sum to 100%)
303 # - surplus_split_reserve + surplus_split_earnback = 1.00
304 # - 0 < rho_annual ≤ 1
305 # - 0 < rho_incident ≤ 1
306 # - rho_incident ≤ rho_annual (single decision ≤ annual budget)
307 # - All `tiers.founding[k]` ≤ `tiers.standard[k]`
308 # - cap_count > 0, cap_months > 0
309
310
311 # ─── Runway disclosure (transparency block on /docs/about/economics) ─────
312 #
313 # Operator-set. Refreshed quarterly at sprint close, alongside the
314 # /changelog recap. The paying-creator count on the page is pulled live
315 # from the DB; this number is the cash-runway bucket.
316 #
317 # Units: quarters at current burn (whole-number bucket; we round down
318 # rather than mislead in either direction).
319 #
320 # A value of 0 means "not yet published" — the page renders without a
321 # number until the first quarterly refresh sets it.
322 [runway]
323 # 17 = $190K committed funding ÷ $3,580/mo current actual burn (ops + $3K
324 # salary), rounded down. Excludes the draw-on-request $50K reserve (would be
325 # 22). Basis: server-internal/business/financial_dashboard.md. Refresh at
326 # sprint close — bump if burn rises (Year 2 $5K salary) or funding changes.
327 quarters = 17
328 last_updated_iso = "2026-06-04"
329
330
331 # ─── Pricing calculator (canonical: this file + stripe_fees.md) ───────────
332 #
333 # Powers the public /pricing comparison. Consumed by MNW's
334 # `src/pricing_comparison.rs` (parsed directly from this file, not through
335 # docengine's scalar lookup — arrays of tables aren't substitutable). The
336 # net-revenue formula and every competitor's parameters live HERE, not in
337 # client JS, so the public "you keep more" claim has one source of truth and
338 # a pinning test (`pricing_comparison::tests`). Stripe fees are read from the
339 # [stripe] block above (percent, fixed).
340 #
341 # Per-competitor net(revenue) is computed as:
342 # txns = max(1, round(revenue / pricing_calc.avg_transaction))
343 # pct = platform_pct_over if (platform_pct_threshold set AND rev > it)
344 # else platform_pct
345 # ap = revenue * (1 - pct) - txns * platform_per_tx
346 # net = { none: ap
347 # , percent: ap - ap*stripe.percent
348 # , percent_and_fixed: ap - ap*stripe.percent - txns*stripe.fixed }
349 # - flat_monthly
350 # MNW's own row = platform_pct 0, percent_and_fixed, flat_monthly = tier price.
351 #
352 # Fee structures are each platform's public pricing as of 2026-06. Verify at
353 # the linked page before editing; a change here updates the live page + test.
354 [pricing_calc]
355 avg_transaction = 25 # assumed average sale, for per-tx fee estimation
356
357 [[competitors]]
358 name = "Patreon"
359 url = "https://www.patreon.com/pricing"
360 fee_label = "10% + ~3% + $0.30"
361 platform_pct = 0.10
362 stripe_mode = "percent_and_fixed"
363
364 [[competitors]]
365 name = "Gumroad"
366 url = "https://gumroad.com/pricing"
367 fee_label = "10% + $0.50/tx + ~3%"
368 platform_pct = 0.10
369 platform_per_tx = 0.50
370 stripe_mode = "percent"
371
372 [[competitors]]
373 name = "Bandcamp"
374 url = "https://bandcamp.com/pricing"
375 fee_label = "15% (10% after $5k) + ~3%"
376 platform_pct = 0.15
377 platform_pct_over = 0.10
378 platform_pct_threshold = 5000
379 stripe_mode = "percent"
380
381 [[competitors]]
382 name = "Ko-fi Free"
383 url = "https://ko-fi.com/pricing"
384 fee_label = "0% tips, 5% shop/memberships + ~3%"
385 platform_pct = 0.05
386 stripe_mode = "percent"
387
388 [[competitors]]
389 name = "Ko-fi Gold"
390 url = "https://ko-fi.com/pricing"
391 fee_label = "$12/mo + 0% + ~3%"
392 flat_monthly = 12
393 stripe_mode = "percent_and_fixed"
394
395 [[competitors]]
396 name = "Itch.io"
397 url = "https://itch.io/docs/creators/faq"
398 fee_label = "10% default + ~3%"
399 platform_pct = 0.10
400 stripe_mode = "percent"
401
402 [[competitors]]
403 name = "Lemon Squeezy"
404 url = "https://www.lemonsqueezy.com/pricing"
405 fee_label = "5% + $0.50/tx (incl. processing)"
406 platform_pct = 0.05
407 platform_per_tx = 0.50
408 stripe_mode = "none"
409
410 [[competitors]]
411 name = "Buy Me a Coffee"
412 url = "https://www.buymeacoffee.com/about"
413 fee_label = "5% + ~3%"
414 platform_pct = 0.05
415 stripe_mode = "percent"
416
417 [[competitors]]
418 name = "Substack"
419 url = "https://substack.com/going-paid"
420 fee_label = "10% on paid subs"
421 platform_pct = 0.10
422 stripe_mode = "percent"
423