# MNW Business Assumptions — Machine-Readable Source of Truth
#
# Status: draft / not yet consumed by tooling. Target consumer is a future
# docengine feature that substitutes `{{ key }}` placeholders in markdown
# at build time. See `MNW/server/docs/todo.md` § "Docengine — assumption
# substitution" for the proposed implementation.
#
# Until that feature ships, this file is informational. The canonical
# values still live in the markdown docs listed in each section header.
#
# Conventions:
#   - All currency in USD unless suffixed `_eur`.
#   - All time in months unless suffixed `_days` / `_years`.
#   - Percentages as decimals (0.029 not 2.9).
#   - Each section names the canonical markdown source.
#   - Open decisions tagged `# OPEN:` — these are placeholder values
#     pending founder approval per `pricing.md` §7 and `reserve_policy.md` §8.
#
# As of: 2026-05-16
# Last manual-verified: 2026-05-16


# ─── Expenses (canonical: expenses.md) ────────────────────────────────────
[expenses]
F_monthly = 580                       # Total fixed monthly burn (rounded from $579.08)
F_monthly_exact = 579.08
as_of = "2026-05-16"

[expenses.lines]
hetzner = 31.00
coworking_industrious = 332.00
claude_code = 200.00
fastmail = 5.00
domains = 2.00
cloudflare = 0.00
postmark = 0.00
apple_developer_amortized = 8.25      # $99/yr ÷ 12
co_llc_periodic_amortized = 0.83      # $10/yr ÷ 12


# ─── Stripe fees (canonical: stripe_fees.md) ──────────────────────────────
[stripe]
percent = 0.029                       # US standard online card
fixed = 0.30                          # Per-transaction flat fee, USD
dispute_fee = 15.00                   # Charged once at dispute creation
instant_payout_us_pct = 0.015         # US/AU/NZ/AE region (was incorrectly cited as flat 1%)
instant_payout_intl_pct = 0.010       # CA/EU/UK/SG/NO/HK/MY region
instant_payout_min = 0.50
chargeback_protection_pct = 0.004     # Stripe Radar add-on (fraud-only)
tax_pct = 0.005                       # Stripe Tax per transaction

[stripe.connect_standard]
# What MNW currently uses for creator subs.
per_account_fee = 0
per_payout_fee = 0
payout_volume_pct = 0

[stripe.connect_express]
# Reference only — not used by MNW for creators.
per_active_account = 2.00
per_payout = 0.25
payout_volume_pct = 0.0025

[stripe.instant_payout]
# Nested form of the flat instant_payout_* keys above; substituted into
# legal/payments.md and guide/stripe.md as {{ stripe.instant_payout.* }}.
# Kept alongside the flat form for backward compatibility.
us_pct   = 0.015
intl_pct = 0.010
min_usd  = 0.50


# ─── Policy commitments (canonical: guarantees.md) ───────────────────────
# Time-based commitments that appear verbatim across guarantees.md, pricing.md,
# tiers.md, faq.md, fan-guide.md, account-lifecycle.md, generative-ai.md, and
# how-we-work.md. Semantically distinct even where the number matches today.
[policy]
buyer_access_days         = 90     # guarantees §Buyer Access — post-close fan download window
shutdown_notice_days      = 90     # guarantees §Shutdown, §Continuity
price_change_notice_days  = 90     # guarantees §Price Stability, pricing.md
grandfather_months        = 12     # guarantees §Price Stability
cancellation_grace_days   = 30     # tiers.md §Cancellation, getting-started.md
content_archive_months    = 12     # guarantees §Content Archive (planned)
generative_ai_notice_days = 30     # generative-ai.md §Governance


# ─── Uptime (canonical: guarantees.md §Availability) ─────────────────────
[uptime]
target_pct                 = 0.995
target_downtime_hours_year = 44    # (1 - 0.995) × 8760 ≈ 43.8, rounded up


# ─── Broadcasts (canonical: tiers.md, mailing-lists.md) ──────────────────
[broadcasts]
per_day                     = 1
recipients_per_send         = 10000
# Display string with thousands separator; docengine has no thousands filter
# so the display form lives here (same pattern as `cohort.cap_display`).
recipients_per_send_display = "10,000"


# ─── Fan+ (canonical: fan-plus.md) ───────────────────────────────────────
[fan_plus]
monthly_price_usd  = 8
# Per-fan monthly credit allowance; funded by Fan+ subscription revenue,
# not per-account overhead. Fan-only — creators don't receive it.
monthly_credit_usd = 5


# ─── Hetzner prices (canonical: hetzner_prices.md) ────────────────────────
[hetzner]
fx_eur_to_usd = 1.085                 # Verify when FX moves >5%

# Compute SKUs (EUR/mo)
ccx13_eur = 13.10                     # 2 dedicated vCPU / 8 GB / 80 GB — production
ccx23_eur = 30.00                     # 4 dedicated vCPU / 16 GB / 160 GB
cpx11_eur = 3.85                      # 2 shared vCPU / 2 GB / 40 GB
cpx31_eur = 13.10                     # 4 shared vCPU / 8 GB / 160 GB
cx22_eur = 4.59                       # 2 shared vCPU / 4 GB / 40 GB

# Storage and bandwidth
object_storage_eur_per_tb = 5.99
object_storage_included_tb = 1
egress_eur_per_tb_overage = 1.00
egress_included_per_server_tb = 1
volume_eur_per_gb = 0.044
ipv4_eur = 0.60
backup_pct_of_server = 0.20


# ─── Tier prices (canonical: pricing.md) ──────────────────────────────────
[tiers.founding]
# Founder pricing — exactly 50% of standard sticker, locked for life. Active
# until the founder window closes (1,000 creators OR exit-beta, whichever
# first). Decision 2026-05-18; raised to 8/12/18/30 on 2026-05-31 to track
# the standard-tier raise; reset to Refined-A (4/7/9/12) on 2026-07-08 per
# pricing_interrogation_2026_07.md §6.
basic = 4
small_files = 7
big_files = 9
everything = 12

[tiers.standard]
# Refined-A sticker — set 2026-07-08 per pricing_interrogation_2026_07.md §6.
# Priced against residency-scale labor ($41.5/hr Y1 support, ~$50/hr blended
# engineering) rather than the earlier $80/hr market rate, with right-sized
# Basic (10GB) and Small Files (100GB) envelopes. Founder rate is exactly
# 50% of these. History: 16/24/36/60 (2026-05-31), 12/18/24/40 (earlier).
basic = 8
small_files = 14
big_files = 18
everything = 24

# ─── Tier envelope limits (storage caps + file size caps) ────────────────
# Per-tier file-size envelope. Public-facing copy substitutes these via
# {{ tier_limits.* }} so the toml is the single source of truth and a future
# limit change is a one-line edit. Stored as display strings (no NBSP, no
# trailing periods) because that's the form the docs always need.
#
# `[tier_bytes]` below carries the same envelopes as machine-readable integer
# byte counts — that's the form Rust needs for upload gating, storage-cap
# accounting, and the metrics fill-ratio SQL. Docengine validates that each
# `tier_bytes.<k>` parses back to the matching `tier_limits.<k>` string, so
# a drift between the two forms fails at boot instead of shipping to prod.
[tier_limits]
# Refined-A envelopes (2026-07-08): Basic shrunk to 5MB/10GB and Small Files
# total shrunk to 100GB to make the tier ladder honest to actual content shape
# rather than "which tier gives me headroom I'll never use." Big Files and
# Everything envelopes unchanged.
basic_per_file = "5MB"
basic_total = "10GB"
small_files_per_file = "500MB"
small_files_total = "100GB"
big_files_per_file = "20GB"
big_files_total = "500GB"
everything_per_file = "20GB"
everything_total = "500GB"

[tier_bytes]
# Binary units (KB = 1024 B). Must match [tier_limits] display strings above.
basic_per_file       = 5242880        # 5 MB
basic_total          = 10737418240    # 10 GB
small_files_per_file = 524288000      # 500 MB
small_files_total    = 107374182400   # 100 GB
big_files_per_file   = 21474836480    # 20 GB
big_files_total      = 536870912000   # 500 GB
everything_per_file  = 21474836480    # 20 GB
everything_total     = 536870912000   # 500 GB


[annual_discount]
# Annual billing is 10% off the monthly × 12 total at every tier, founder
# and standard. Two-digit discount, clean pitch. Decision 2026-05-18.
#
# What this actually covers:
#   - Stripe per-transaction fees ($0.30 each, charged 12x for monthly vs 1x
#     for annual): saves MNW ~$3.30/yr per customer regardless of tier.
#   - The 2.9% percent fee is identical either way (a wash).
#   - At Basic, 10% off ≈ the literal Stripe saving (close to pass-through).
#   - At Everything, 10% off ($36/yr) > the Stripe saving ($3.30/yr); MNW
#     absorbs the difference (~$15/yr per Everything customer at founder
#     pricing, ~$32/yr per Everything customer at sticker) as a cashflow +
#     reduced-billing-failure benefit. Defensible but not pure pass-through.
#
# Computed values (monthly × 12 × 0.9, rounded to nearest dollar):
#   Founder:   $86 / $130 / $194 / $324
#   Standard:  $173 / $259 / $389 / $648
multiplier = 0.9
months_equivalent_free = 1.2     # 10% of 12 months


# ─── Tier mix (canonical: tier_mix.md) ────────────────────────────────────
[tier_mix.assumed]
# Pre-launch placeholder distribution. A4 in assumptions.md.
# Updated monthly from SQL once creators exist.
basic_pct = 0.40
small_files_pct = 0.30
big_files_pct = 0.20
everything_pct = 0.10


# ─── Reserve policy (canonical: reserve_policy.md) ────────────────────────
[reserve]
# OPEN: all values in this block per reserve_policy.md §8

T_fixed_months = 12                   # OPEN: §8 item 1
S_legal = 50000                       # OPEN: §8 item 2 — pre-quote
S_shock = 5000                        # OPEN: §8 item 3

R_opp = 10000                         # OPEN: §8 item 4
rho_annual = 0.50                     # OPEN: §8 item 5 — max % of R_opp/yr
rho_incident = 0.25                   # OPEN: §8 item 6 — max % of R_opp/decision

surplus_split_reserve = 0.20          # OPEN: §8 item 7 — steady state
surplus_split_earnback = 0.80
# Sum must equal 1.0

transition_buffer_pct = 1.00          # OPEN: §8 item 10 — multiplier on R_cap before personal-to-company transition


# ─── Cohort (canonical: pricing.md) ───────────────────────────────────────
[cohort]
# OPEN: all values per pricing.md §7

cap_count = 1000                      # Decided 2026-05-31; raised from 500 to match public copy in tiers.md / pricing.md.
cap_display = "1,000"                 # Display string with thousands separator; substituted via {{ cohort.cap_display }}. Keep in sync with cap_count.
cap_months = 12                       # OPEN: §7 item 1 — or first M months (whichever first)
lock_duration = "lifetime"            # OPEN: §7 item 4 — lifetime-of-subscription
# Counting rule (cumulative vs active) — see sops/founding-cohort-tracking.md, founder decision pending


# ─── Per-creator marginal cost inputs (canonical: assumptions.md A1-A10) ─
# All currently unmeasured — pre-launch placeholders.
[creator_marginal]
storage_basic_gb = 0.05               # A1: ~50 MB (right-sized 2026-07-08 alongside 10GB Basic envelope)
storage_small_files_gb = 2            # A2: ~2 GB
storage_big_files_gb = 10             # A3: ~10 GB
storage_everything_gb = 30            # A10: tier-dependent, placeholder
storage_cost_per_gb_per_month = 0.0065  # = €5.99/TB-mo × FX
egress_origin_hit_assumed_pct = 0.10  # A6: Cloudflare cache absorbs ~90% (assumed)
chargeback_rate_tier_subs = 0.001     # A12: 0.1% for recurring (lower than one-shot)


# ─── Derived values (for docengine feature; NOT stored — computed) ────────
#
# These are documented here for the future implementation. The docengine
# feature should compute them from the values above. Listed as commented
# pseudo-code; actual implementation belongs in Rust.
#
# R_cap                    = T_fixed_months · F_monthly + S_legal + S_shock
#                          = 12 · 580 + 50000 + 5000 = 61960
#
# ARPU_founding            = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.founding[k])
#                          = 0.4·8 + 0.3·12 + 0.2·18 + 0.1·30 = 13.40
#
# ARPU_standard            = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.standard[k])
#                          = 0.4·16 + 0.3·24 + 0.2·36 + 0.1·60 = 26.80
#
# stripe_fee(amount)       = stripe.percent · amount + stripe.fixed
# stripe_fee_basic_std     = 0.029 · 16 + 0.30 = 0.76
# stripe_fee_small_std     = 0.029 · 24 + 0.30 = 1.00
# stripe_fee_big_std       = 0.029 · 36 + 0.30 = 1.34
# stripe_fee_ev_std        = 0.029 · 60 + 0.30 = 2.04
#
# break_even(rate_class)   = F_monthly / (ARPU_{rate_class} − marginal_avg)
# break_even_standard      = 580 / (26.80 − 1) ≈ 22.5 creators
# break_even_founding      = 580 / (13.40 − 1) ≈ 46.8 creators
#
# surplus(N, rate_class)   = N · (ARPU − marginal) − F_monthly
# surplus(100, "standard") = 100 · 25.80 − 580 = 2000
# surplus(500, "standard") = 500 · 25.80 − 580 = 12320
#
# fill_time_months(N)      = (R_cap + R_opp) / surplus(N, "standard")
# fill_time(100)           = 71960 / 2000 ≈ 36 mo
# fill_time(500)           = 71960 / 12320 ≈ 6 mo
#
# infra_cost(tier, N)      = storage_{tier}_gb · storage_cost_per_gb_per_month
#                          + egress_share + stripe_fee(price) + F_monthly/N
#
# Validation rules the build step should enforce:
#   - 100 < F_monthly < 10000        (typo guard)
#   - sum(tier_mix.*) = 1.00         (tier mix must sum to 100%)
#   - surplus_split_reserve + surplus_split_earnback = 1.00
#   - 0 < rho_annual ≤ 1
#   - 0 < rho_incident ≤ 1
#   - rho_incident ≤ rho_annual      (single decision ≤ annual budget)
#   - All `tiers.founding[k]` ≤ `tiers.standard[k]`
#   - cap_count > 0, cap_months > 0


# ─── Runway disclosure (transparency block on /docs/about/economics) ─────
#
# Operator-set. Refreshed quarterly at sprint close, alongside the
# /changelog recap. The paying-creator count on the page is pulled live
# from the DB; this number is the cash-runway bucket.
#
# Units: quarters at current burn (whole-number bucket; we round down
# rather than mislead in either direction).
#
# A value of 0 means "not yet published" — the page renders without a
# number until the first quarterly refresh sets it.
[runway]
# 17 = $190K committed funding ÷ $3,580/mo current actual burn (ops + $3K
# salary), rounded down. Excludes the draw-on-request $50K reserve (would be
# 22). Basis: server-internal/business/financial_dashboard.md. Refresh at
# sprint close — bump if burn rises (Year 2 $5K salary) or funding changes.
quarters = 17
last_updated_iso = "2026-06-04"


# ─── Pricing calculator (canonical: this file + stripe_fees.md) ───────────
#
# Powers the public /pricing comparison. Consumed by MNW's
# `src/pricing_comparison.rs` (parsed directly from this file, not through
# docengine's scalar lookup — arrays of tables aren't substitutable). The
# net-revenue formula and every competitor's parameters live HERE, not in
# client JS, so the public "you keep more" claim has one source of truth and
# a pinning test (`pricing_comparison::tests`). Stripe fees are read from the
# [stripe] block above (percent, fixed).
#
# Per-competitor net(revenue) is computed as:
#   txns = max(1, round(revenue / pricing_calc.avg_transaction))
#   pct  = platform_pct_over  if (platform_pct_threshold set AND rev > it)
#          else platform_pct
#   ap   = revenue * (1 - pct) - txns * platform_per_tx
#   net  = { none: ap
#          , percent: ap - ap*stripe.percent
#          , percent_and_fixed: ap - ap*stripe.percent - txns*stripe.fixed }
#          - flat_monthly
# MNW's own row = platform_pct 0, percent_and_fixed, flat_monthly = tier price.
#
# Fee structures are each platform's public pricing as of 2026-06. Verify at
# the linked page before editing; a change here updates the live page + test.
[pricing_calc]
avg_transaction = 25              # assumed average sale, for per-tx fee estimation

[[competitors]]
name = "Patreon"
url = "https://www.patreon.com/pricing"
fee_label = "10% + ~3% + $0.30"
platform_pct = 0.10
stripe_mode = "percent_and_fixed"

[[competitors]]
name = "Gumroad"
url = "https://gumroad.com/pricing"
fee_label = "10% + $0.50/tx + ~3%"
platform_pct = 0.10
platform_per_tx = 0.50
stripe_mode = "percent"

[[competitors]]
name = "Bandcamp"
url = "https://bandcamp.com/pricing"
fee_label = "15% (10% after $5k) + ~3%"
platform_pct = 0.15
platform_pct_over = 0.10
platform_pct_threshold = 5000
stripe_mode = "percent"

[[competitors]]
name = "Ko-fi Free"
url = "https://ko-fi.com/pricing"
fee_label = "0% tips, 5% shop/memberships + ~3%"
platform_pct = 0.05
stripe_mode = "percent"

[[competitors]]
name = "Ko-fi Gold"
url = "https://ko-fi.com/pricing"
fee_label = "$12/mo + 0% + ~3%"
flat_monthly = 12
stripe_mode = "percent_and_fixed"

[[competitors]]
name = "Itch.io"
url = "https://itch.io/docs/creators/faq"
fee_label = "10% default + ~3%"
platform_pct = 0.10
stripe_mode = "percent"

[[competitors]]
name = "Lemon Squeezy"
url = "https://www.lemonsqueezy.com/pricing"
fee_label = "5% + $0.50/tx (incl. processing)"
platform_pct = 0.05
platform_per_tx = 0.50
stripe_mode = "none"

[[competitors]]
name = "Buy Me a Coffee"
url = "https://www.buymeacoffee.com/about"
fee_label = "5% + ~3%"
platform_pct = 0.05
stripe_mode = "percent"

[[competitors]]
name = "Substack"
url = "https://substack.com/going-paid"
fee_label = "10% on paid subs"
platform_pct = 0.10
stripe_mode = "percent"