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# MNW Business Assumptions — Machine-Readable Source of Truth |
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# |
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# Status: draft / not yet consumed by tooling. Target consumer is a future |
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# docengine feature that substitutes `{{ key }}` placeholders in markdown |
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# at build time. See `MNW/server/docs/todo.md` § "Docengine — assumption |
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# substitution" for the proposed implementation. |
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# |
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# Until that feature ships, this file is informational. The canonical |
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# values still live in the markdown docs listed in each section header. |
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# |
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# Conventions: |
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# - All currency in USD unless suffixed `_eur`. |
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# - All time in months unless suffixed `_days` / `_years`. |
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# - Percentages as decimals (0.029 not 2.9). |
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# - Each section names the canonical markdown source. |
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# - Open decisions tagged `# OPEN:` — these are placeholder values |
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# pending founder approval per `pricing.md` §7 and `reserve_policy.md` §8. |
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# |
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# As of: 2026-05-16 |
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# Last manual-verified: 2026-05-16 |
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# ─── Expenses (canonical: expenses.md) ──────────────────────────────────── |
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[expenses] |
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F_monthly = 580 # Total fixed monthly burn (rounded from $579.08) |
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F_monthly_exact = 579.08 |
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as_of = "2026-05-16" |
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|
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[expenses.lines] |
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hetzner = 31.00 |
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coworking_industrious = 332.00 |
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claude_code = 200.00 |
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fastmail = 5.00 |
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domains = 2.00 |
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cloudflare = 0.00 |
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postmark = 0.00 |
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apple_developer_amortized = 8.25 # $99/yr ÷ 12 |
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co_llc_periodic_amortized = 0.83 # $10/yr ÷ 12 |
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|
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# ─── Stripe fees (canonical: stripe_fees.md) ────────────────────────────── |
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[stripe] |
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percent = 0.029 # US standard online card |
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fixed = 0.30 # Per-transaction flat fee, USD |
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dispute_fee = 15.00 # Charged once at dispute creation |
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instant_payout_us_pct = 0.015 # US/AU/NZ/AE region (was incorrectly cited as flat 1%) |
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instant_payout_intl_pct = 0.010 # CA/EU/UK/SG/NO/HK/MY region |
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instant_payout_min = 0.50 |
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chargeback_protection_pct = 0.004 # Stripe Radar add-on (fraud-only) |
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tax_pct = 0.005 # Stripe Tax per transaction |
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|
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[stripe.connect_standard] |
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# What MNW currently uses for creator subs. |
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per_account_fee = 0 |
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per_payout_fee = 0 |
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payout_volume_pct = 0 |
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|
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[stripe.connect_express] |
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# Reference only — not used by MNW for creators. |
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per_active_account = 2.00 |
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per_payout = 0.25 |
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payout_volume_pct = 0.0025 |
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# ─── Hetzner prices (canonical: hetzner_prices.md) ──────────────────────── |
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[hetzner] |
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fx_eur_to_usd = 1.085 # Verify when FX moves >5% |
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|
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# Compute SKUs (EUR/mo) |
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ccx13_eur = 13.10 # 2 dedicated vCPU / 8 GB / 80 GB — production |
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ccx23_eur = 30.00 # 4 dedicated vCPU / 16 GB / 160 GB |
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cpx11_eur = 3.85 # 2 shared vCPU / 2 GB / 40 GB |
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cpx31_eur = 13.10 # 4 shared vCPU / 8 GB / 160 GB |
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cx22_eur = 4.59 # 2 shared vCPU / 4 GB / 40 GB |
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|
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# Storage and bandwidth |
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object_storage_eur_per_tb = 5.99 |
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object_storage_included_tb = 1 |
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egress_eur_per_tb_overage = 1.00 |
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egress_included_per_server_tb = 1 |
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volume_eur_per_gb = 0.044 |
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ipv4_eur = 0.60 |
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backup_pct_of_server = 0.20 |
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|
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|
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# ─── Tier prices (canonical: pricing.md) ────────────────────────────────── |
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[tiers.founding] |
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# Founder pricing — exactly 50% of standard sticker, locked for life. Active |
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# until the founder window closes (1,000 creators OR exit-beta, whichever |
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# first). Decision 2026-05-18; raised to 8/12/18/30 on 2026-05-31 to track |
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# the standard-tier raise (see memory `project_founder_pricing.md`). |
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basic = 8 |
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small_files = 12 |
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big_files = 18 |
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everything = 30 |
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|
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[tiers.standard] |
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# Post-founder sticker — set 2026-05-31 to clear the irreducible |
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# ~$5/creator/mo support floor at every tier with even-dollar prices. |
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# Founder rate is exactly 50% of these. See launchplan_final.md §4.5. |
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basic = 16 |
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small_files = 24 |
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big_files = 36 |
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everything = 60 |
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|
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# ─── Tier envelope limits (storage caps + file size caps) ──────────────── |
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# Per-tier file-size envelope. Public-facing copy substitutes these via |
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# {{ tier_limits.* }} so the toml is the single source of truth and a future |
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# limit change is a one-line edit. Stored as display strings (no NBSP, no |
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# trailing periods) because that's the form the docs always need. |
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[tier_limits] |
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basic_per_file = "10MB" |
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basic_total = "50GB" |
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small_files_per_file = "500MB" |
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small_files_total = "250GB" |
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big_files_per_file = "20GB" |
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big_files_total = "500GB" |
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everything_per_file = "20GB" |
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everything_total = "500GB" |
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|
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|
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[annual_discount] |
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# Annual billing is 10% off the monthly × 12 total at every tier, founder |
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# and standard. Two-digit discount, clean pitch. Decision 2026-05-18. |
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# |
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# What this actually covers: |
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# - Stripe per-transaction fees ($0.30 each, charged 12x for monthly vs 1x |
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# for annual): saves MNW ~$3.30/yr per customer regardless of tier. |
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# - The 2.9% percent fee is identical either way (a wash). |
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# - At Basic, 10% off ≈ the literal Stripe saving (close to pass-through). |
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# - At Everything, 10% off ($36/yr) > the Stripe saving ($3.30/yr); MNW |
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# absorbs the difference (~$15/yr per Everything customer at founder |
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# pricing, ~$32/yr per Everything customer at sticker) as a cashflow + |
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# reduced-billing-failure benefit. Defensible but not pure pass-through. |
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# |
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# Computed values (monthly × 12 × 0.9, rounded to nearest dollar): |
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# Founder: $86 / $130 / $194 / $324 |
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# Standard: $173 / $259 / $389 / $648 |
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multiplier = 0.9 |
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months_equivalent_free = 1.2 # 10% of 12 months |
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# ─── Tier mix (canonical: tier_mix.md) ──────────────────────────────────── |
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[tier_mix.assumed] |
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# Pre-launch placeholder distribution. A4 in assumptions.md. |
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# Updated monthly from SQL once creators exist. |
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basic_pct = 0.40 |
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small_files_pct = 0.30 |
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big_files_pct = 0.20 |
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everything_pct = 0.10 |
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|
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# ─── Reserve policy (canonical: reserve_policy.md) ──────────────────────── |
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[reserve] |
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# OPEN: all values in this block per reserve_policy.md §8 |
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|
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T_fixed_months = 12 # OPEN: §8 item 1 |
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S_legal = 50000 # OPEN: §8 item 2 — pre-quote |
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S_shock = 5000 # OPEN: §8 item 3 |
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|
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R_opp = 10000 # OPEN: §8 item 4 |
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rho_annual = 0.50 # OPEN: §8 item 5 — max % of R_opp/yr |
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rho_incident = 0.25 # OPEN: §8 item 6 — max % of R_opp/decision |
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|
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surplus_split_reserve = 0.20 # OPEN: §8 item 7 — steady state |
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surplus_split_earnback = 0.80 |
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# Sum must equal 1.0 |
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|
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transition_buffer_pct = 1.00 # OPEN: §8 item 10 — multiplier on R_cap before personal-to-company transition |
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# ─── Cohort (canonical: pricing.md) ─────────────────────────────────────── |
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[cohort] |
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# OPEN: all values per pricing.md §7 |
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|
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cap_count = 1000 # Decided 2026-05-31; raised from 500 to match public copy in tiers.md / pricing.md. |
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cap_display = "1,000" # Display string with thousands separator; substituted via {{ cohort.cap_display }}. Keep in sync with cap_count. |
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cap_months = 12 # OPEN: §7 item 1 — or first M months (whichever first) |
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lock_duration = "lifetime" # OPEN: §7 item 4 — lifetime-of-subscription |
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# Counting rule (cumulative vs active) — see sops/founding-cohort-tracking.md, founder decision pending |
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# ─── Per-creator marginal cost inputs (canonical: assumptions.md A1-A10) ─ |
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# All currently unmeasured — pre-launch placeholders. |
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[creator_marginal] |
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storage_basic_gb = 0.1 # A1: ~100 MB |
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storage_small_files_gb = 2 # A2: ~2 GB |
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storage_big_files_gb = 10 # A3: ~10 GB |
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storage_everything_gb = 30 # A10: tier-dependent, placeholder |
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storage_cost_per_gb_per_month = 0.0065 # = €5.99/TB-mo × FX |
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egress_origin_hit_assumed_pct = 0.10 # A6: Cloudflare cache absorbs ~90% (assumed) |
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chargeback_rate_tier_subs = 0.001 # A12: 0.1% for recurring (lower than one-shot) |
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# ─── Derived values (for docengine feature; NOT stored — computed) ──────── |
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# |
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# These are documented here for the future implementation. The docengine |
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# feature should compute them from the values above. Listed as commented |
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# pseudo-code; actual implementation belongs in Rust. |
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# |
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# R_cap = T_fixed_months · F_monthly + S_legal + S_shock |
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# = 12 · 580 + 50000 + 5000 = 61960 |
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# |
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# ARPU_founding = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.founding[k]) |
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# = 0.4·8 + 0.3·12 + 0.2·18 + 0.1·30 = 13.40 |
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# |
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# ARPU_standard = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.standard[k]) |
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# = 0.4·16 + 0.3·24 + 0.2·36 + 0.1·60 = 26.80 |
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# |
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# stripe_fee(amount) = stripe.percent · amount + stripe.fixed |
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# stripe_fee_basic_std = 0.029 · 16 + 0.30 = 0.76 |
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# stripe_fee_small_std = 0.029 · 24 + 0.30 = 1.00 |
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# stripe_fee_big_std = 0.029 · 36 + 0.30 = 1.34 |
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# stripe_fee_ev_std = 0.029 · 60 + 0.30 = 2.04 |
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# |
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# break_even(rate_class) = F_monthly / (ARPU_{rate_class} − marginal_avg) |
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# break_even_standard = 580 / (26.80 − 1) ≈ 22.5 creators |
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# break_even_founding = 580 / (13.40 − 1) ≈ 46.8 creators |
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# |
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# surplus(N, rate_class) = N · (ARPU − marginal) − F_monthly |
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# surplus(100, "standard") = 100 · 25.80 − 580 = 2000 |
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# surplus(500, "standard") = 500 · 25.80 − 580 = 12320 |
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# |
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# fill_time_months(N) = (R_cap + R_opp) / surplus(N, "standard") |
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# fill_time(100) = 71960 / 2000 ≈ 36 mo |
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# fill_time(500) = 71960 / 12320 ≈ 6 mo |
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# |
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# infra_cost(tier, N) = storage_{tier}_gb · storage_cost_per_gb_per_month |
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# + egress_share + stripe_fee(price) + F_monthly/N |
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# |
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# Validation rules the build step should enforce: |
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# - 100 < F_monthly < 10000 (typo guard) |
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# - sum(tier_mix.*) = 1.00 (tier mix must sum to 100%) |
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# - surplus_split_reserve + surplus_split_earnback = 1.00 |
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# - 0 < rho_annual ≤ 1 |
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# - 0 < rho_incident ≤ 1 |
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# - rho_incident ≤ rho_annual (single decision ≤ annual budget) |
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# - All `tiers.founding[k]` ≤ `tiers.standard[k]` |
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# - cap_count > 0, cap_months > 0 |
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|
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# ─── Per-tier monthly fee allocation (Mode 1 widget on /pricing) ───────── |
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# |
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# Each row sums to the standard tier price. The widget renders standard-rate |
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# numbers only; founder-rate creators pay 50% of standard with the subsidy |
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# absorbed by reserves + earnback, so the allocation shape is the same but |
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# the visible total scales down — a one-line note on the pricing page covers |
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# that case. |
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# |
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# Model (per `site-docs/public/about/economics.md`): |
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# - Stripe: 2.9% × price + $0.30 (Stripe's actual fee formula) |
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# - Storage: at-rest + egress + virus-scan + backups + provider-price |
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# cushion; ~5–15× the bare Hetzner at-rest math from |
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# [creator_marginal] to absorb spikes |
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# - Support: flat $5.00/creator — per-creator floor, doesn't scale |
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# with tier (a Basic text creator and a $60 video creator |
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# each get the same human availability) |
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# - Engineering: flat $6.00/creator — engineering hours don't scale with |
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# what tier someone bought; the same platform serves all |
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# - Reserves: 12.5% of revenue (risk float for refunds/chargebacks/runway) |
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# - Earn-back: residual; the surplus from higher tiers funds platform |
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# development that benefits everyone |
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# |
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# Numbers below are pinned by `tier_prices::tests::cost_allocation_*`. |
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[cost_allocation.basic] |
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stripe = 0.76 |
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storage = 0.40 |
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support = 5.00 |
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engineering = 6.00 |
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reserves = 2.00 |
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earnback = 1.84 |
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|
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[cost_allocation.small_files] |
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stripe = 1.00 |
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storage = 1.00 |
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support = 5.00 |
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engineering = 6.00 |
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reserves = 3.00 |
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earnback = 8.00 |
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|
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[cost_allocation.big_files] |
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stripe = 1.34 |
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storage = 3.00 |
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support = 5.00 |
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engineering = 6.00 |
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reserves = 4.50 |
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earnback = 16.16 |
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|
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[cost_allocation.everything] |
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stripe = 2.04 |
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storage = 6.00 |
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support = 5.00 |
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engineering = 6.00 |
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reserves = 7.50 |
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earnback = 33.46 |
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# ─── Runway disclosure (transparency block on /docs/about/economics) ───── |
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# |
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# Operator-set. Refreshed quarterly at sprint close, alongside the |
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# /changelog recap. The paying-creator count on the page is pulled live |
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# from the DB; this number is the cash-runway bucket. |
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# |
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# Units: quarters at current burn (whole-number bucket; we round down |
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# rather than mislead in either direction). |
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# |
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# A value of 0 means "not yet published" — the page renders without a |
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# number until the first quarterly refresh sets it. |
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[runway] |
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# 17 = $190K committed funding ÷ $3,580/mo current actual burn (ops + $3K |
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# salary), rounded down. Excludes the draw-on-request $50K reserve (would be |
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# 22). Basis: server-internal/business/financial_dashboard.md. Refresh at |
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# sprint close — bump if burn rises (Year 2 $5K salary) or funding changes. |
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quarters = 17 |
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last_updated_iso = "2026-06-04" |
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|