# MNW Business Assumptions — Machine-Readable Source of Truth
#
# Status: draft / not yet consumed by tooling. Target consumer is a future
# docengine feature that substitutes `{{ key }}` placeholders in markdown
# at build time. See `MNW/server/docs/todo.md` § "Docengine — assumption
# substitution" for the proposed implementation.
#
# Until that feature ships, this file is informational. The canonical
# values still live in the markdown docs listed in each section header.
#
# Conventions:
#   - All currency in USD unless suffixed `_eur`.
#   - All time in months unless suffixed `_days` / `_years`.
#   - Percentages as decimals (0.029 not 2.9).
#   - Each section names the canonical markdown source.
#   - Open decisions tagged `# OPEN:` — these are placeholder values
#     pending founder approval per `pricing.md` §7 and `reserve_policy.md` §8.
#
# As of: 2026-05-16
# Last manual-verified: 2026-05-16


# ─── Expenses (canonical: expenses.md) ────────────────────────────────────
[expenses]
F_monthly = 580                       # Total fixed monthly burn (rounded from $579.08)
F_monthly_exact = 579.08
as_of = "2026-05-16"

[expenses.lines]
hetzner = 31.00
coworking_industrious = 332.00
claude_code = 200.00
fastmail = 5.00
domains = 2.00
cloudflare = 0.00
postmark = 0.00
apple_developer_amortized = 8.25      # $99/yr ÷ 12
co_llc_periodic_amortized = 0.83      # $10/yr ÷ 12


# ─── Stripe fees (canonical: stripe_fees.md) ──────────────────────────────
[stripe]
percent = 0.029                       # US standard online card
fixed = 0.30                          # Per-transaction flat fee, USD
dispute_fee = 15.00                   # Charged once at dispute creation
instant_payout_us_pct = 0.015         # US/AU/NZ/AE region (was incorrectly cited as flat 1%)
instant_payout_intl_pct = 0.010       # CA/EU/UK/SG/NO/HK/MY region
instant_payout_min = 0.50
chargeback_protection_pct = 0.004     # Stripe Radar add-on (fraud-only)
tax_pct = 0.005                       # Stripe Tax per transaction

[stripe.connect_standard]
# What MNW currently uses for creator subs.
per_account_fee = 0
per_payout_fee = 0
payout_volume_pct = 0

[stripe.connect_express]
# Reference only — not used by MNW for creators.
per_active_account = 2.00
per_payout = 0.25
payout_volume_pct = 0.0025


# ─── Hetzner prices (canonical: hetzner_prices.md) ────────────────────────
[hetzner]
fx_eur_to_usd = 1.085                 # Verify when FX moves >5%

# Compute SKUs (EUR/mo)
ccx13_eur = 13.10                     # 2 dedicated vCPU / 8 GB / 80 GB — production
ccx23_eur = 30.00                     # 4 dedicated vCPU / 16 GB / 160 GB
cpx11_eur = 3.85                      # 2 shared vCPU / 2 GB / 40 GB
cpx31_eur = 13.10                     # 4 shared vCPU / 8 GB / 160 GB
cx22_eur = 4.59                       # 2 shared vCPU / 4 GB / 40 GB

# Storage and bandwidth
object_storage_eur_per_tb = 5.99
object_storage_included_tb = 1
egress_eur_per_tb_overage = 1.00
egress_included_per_server_tb = 1
volume_eur_per_gb = 0.044
ipv4_eur = 0.60
backup_pct_of_server = 0.20


# ─── Tier prices (canonical: pricing.md) ──────────────────────────────────
[tiers.founding]
# Founder pricing — exactly 50% of standard sticker, locked for life. Active
# until the founder window closes (1,000 creators OR exit-beta, whichever
# first). Decision 2026-05-18; raised to 8/12/18/30 on 2026-05-31 to track
# the standard-tier raise (see memory `project_founder_pricing.md`).
basic = 8
small_files = 12
big_files = 18
everything = 30

[tiers.standard]
# Post-founder sticker — set 2026-05-31 to clear the irreducible
# ~$5/creator/mo support floor at every tier with even-dollar prices.
# Founder rate is exactly 50% of these. See launchplan_final.md §4.5.
basic = 16
small_files = 24
big_files = 36
everything = 60

# ─── Tier envelope limits (storage caps + file size caps) ────────────────
# Per-tier file-size envelope. Public-facing copy substitutes these via
# {{ tier_limits.* }} so the toml is the single source of truth and a future
# limit change is a one-line edit. Stored as display strings (no NBSP, no
# trailing periods) because that's the form the docs always need.
[tier_limits]
basic_per_file = "10MB"
basic_total = "50GB"
small_files_per_file = "500MB"
small_files_total = "250GB"
big_files_per_file = "20GB"
big_files_total = "500GB"
everything_per_file = "20GB"
everything_total = "500GB"


[annual_discount]
# Annual billing is 10% off the monthly × 12 total at every tier, founder
# and standard. Two-digit discount, clean pitch. Decision 2026-05-18.
#
# What this actually covers:
#   - Stripe per-transaction fees ($0.30 each, charged 12x for monthly vs 1x
#     for annual): saves MNW ~$3.30/yr per customer regardless of tier.
#   - The 2.9% percent fee is identical either way (a wash).
#   - At Basic, 10% off ≈ the literal Stripe saving (close to pass-through).
#   - At Everything, 10% off ($36/yr) > the Stripe saving ($3.30/yr); MNW
#     absorbs the difference (~$15/yr per Everything customer at founder
#     pricing, ~$32/yr per Everything customer at sticker) as a cashflow +
#     reduced-billing-failure benefit. Defensible but not pure pass-through.
#
# Computed values (monthly × 12 × 0.9, rounded to nearest dollar):
#   Founder:   $86 / $130 / $194 / $324
#   Standard:  $173 / $259 / $389 / $648
multiplier = 0.9
months_equivalent_free = 1.2     # 10% of 12 months


# ─── Tier mix (canonical: tier_mix.md) ────────────────────────────────────
[tier_mix.assumed]
# Pre-launch placeholder distribution. A4 in assumptions.md.
# Updated monthly from SQL once creators exist.
basic_pct = 0.40
small_files_pct = 0.30
big_files_pct = 0.20
everything_pct = 0.10


# ─── Reserve policy (canonical: reserve_policy.md) ────────────────────────
[reserve]
# OPEN: all values in this block per reserve_policy.md §8

T_fixed_months = 12                   # OPEN: §8 item 1
S_legal = 50000                       # OPEN: §8 item 2 — pre-quote
S_shock = 5000                        # OPEN: §8 item 3

R_opp = 10000                         # OPEN: §8 item 4
rho_annual = 0.50                     # OPEN: §8 item 5 — max % of R_opp/yr
rho_incident = 0.25                   # OPEN: §8 item 6 — max % of R_opp/decision

surplus_split_reserve = 0.20          # OPEN: §8 item 7 — steady state
surplus_split_earnback = 0.80
# Sum must equal 1.0

transition_buffer_pct = 1.00          # OPEN: §8 item 10 — multiplier on R_cap before personal-to-company transition


# ─── Cohort (canonical: pricing.md) ───────────────────────────────────────
[cohort]
# OPEN: all values per pricing.md §7

cap_count = 1000                      # Decided 2026-05-31; raised from 500 to match public copy in tiers.md / pricing.md.
cap_display = "1,000"                 # Display string with thousands separator; substituted via {{ cohort.cap_display }}. Keep in sync with cap_count.
cap_months = 12                       # OPEN: §7 item 1 — or first M months (whichever first)
lock_duration = "lifetime"            # OPEN: §7 item 4 — lifetime-of-subscription
# Counting rule (cumulative vs active) — see sops/founding-cohort-tracking.md, founder decision pending


# ─── Per-creator marginal cost inputs (canonical: assumptions.md A1-A10) ─
# All currently unmeasured — pre-launch placeholders.
[creator_marginal]
storage_basic_gb = 0.1                # A1: ~100 MB
storage_small_files_gb = 2            # A2: ~2 GB
storage_big_files_gb = 10             # A3: ~10 GB
storage_everything_gb = 30            # A10: tier-dependent, placeholder
storage_cost_per_gb_per_month = 0.0065  # = €5.99/TB-mo × FX
egress_origin_hit_assumed_pct = 0.10  # A6: Cloudflare cache absorbs ~90% (assumed)
chargeback_rate_tier_subs = 0.001     # A12: 0.1% for recurring (lower than one-shot)


# ─── Derived values (for docengine feature; NOT stored — computed) ────────
#
# These are documented here for the future implementation. The docengine
# feature should compute them from the values above. Listed as commented
# pseudo-code; actual implementation belongs in Rust.
#
# R_cap                    = T_fixed_months · F_monthly + S_legal + S_shock
#                          = 12 · 580 + 50000 + 5000 = 61960
#
# ARPU_founding            = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.founding[k])
#                          = 0.4·8 + 0.3·12 + 0.2·18 + 0.1·30 = 13.40
#
# ARPU_standard            = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.standard[k])
#                          = 0.4·16 + 0.3·24 + 0.2·36 + 0.1·60 = 26.80
#
# stripe_fee(amount)       = stripe.percent · amount + stripe.fixed
# stripe_fee_basic_std     = 0.029 · 16 + 0.30 = 0.76
# stripe_fee_small_std     = 0.029 · 24 + 0.30 = 1.00
# stripe_fee_big_std       = 0.029 · 36 + 0.30 = 1.34
# stripe_fee_ev_std        = 0.029 · 60 + 0.30 = 2.04
#
# break_even(rate_class)   = F_monthly / (ARPU_{rate_class} − marginal_avg)
# break_even_standard      = 580 / (26.80 − 1) ≈ 22.5 creators
# break_even_founding      = 580 / (13.40 − 1) ≈ 46.8 creators
#
# surplus(N, rate_class)   = N · (ARPU − marginal) − F_monthly
# surplus(100, "standard") = 100 · 25.80 − 580 = 2000
# surplus(500, "standard") = 500 · 25.80 − 580 = 12320
#
# fill_time_months(N)      = (R_cap + R_opp) / surplus(N, "standard")
# fill_time(100)           = 71960 / 2000 ≈ 36 mo
# fill_time(500)           = 71960 / 12320 ≈ 6 mo
#
# infra_cost(tier, N)      = storage_{tier}_gb · storage_cost_per_gb_per_month
#                          + egress_share + stripe_fee(price) + F_monthly/N
#
# Validation rules the build step should enforce:
#   - 100 < F_monthly < 10000        (typo guard)
#   - sum(tier_mix.*) = 1.00         (tier mix must sum to 100%)
#   - surplus_split_reserve + surplus_split_earnback = 1.00
#   - 0 < rho_annual ≤ 1
#   - 0 < rho_incident ≤ 1
#   - rho_incident ≤ rho_annual      (single decision ≤ annual budget)
#   - All `tiers.founding[k]` ≤ `tiers.standard[k]`
#   - cap_count > 0, cap_months > 0


# ─── Per-tier monthly fee allocation (Mode 1 widget on /pricing) ─────────
#
# Each row sums to the standard tier price. The widget renders standard-rate
# numbers only; founder-rate creators pay 50% of standard with the subsidy
# absorbed by reserves + earnback, so the allocation shape is the same but
# the visible total scales down — a one-line note on the pricing page covers
# that case.
#
# Model (per `site-docs/public/about/economics.md`):
#   - Stripe:      2.9% × price + $0.30 (Stripe's actual fee formula)
#   - Storage:     at-rest + egress + virus-scan + backups + provider-price
#                  cushion; ~5–15× the bare Hetzner at-rest math from
#                  [creator_marginal] to absorb spikes
#   - Support:     flat $5.00/creator — per-creator floor, doesn't scale
#                  with tier (a Basic text creator and a $60 video creator
#                  each get the same human availability)
#   - Engineering: flat $6.00/creator — engineering hours don't scale with
#                  what tier someone bought; the same platform serves all
#   - Reserves:    12.5% of revenue (risk float for refunds/chargebacks/runway)
#   - Earn-back:   residual; the surplus from higher tiers funds platform
#                  development that benefits everyone
#
# Numbers below are pinned by `tier_prices::tests::cost_allocation_*`.
[cost_allocation.basic]
stripe = 0.76
storage = 0.40
support = 5.00
engineering = 6.00
reserves = 2.00
earnback = 1.84

[cost_allocation.small_files]
stripe = 1.00
storage = 1.00
support = 5.00
engineering = 6.00
reserves = 3.00
earnback = 8.00

[cost_allocation.big_files]
stripe = 1.34
storage = 3.00
support = 5.00
engineering = 6.00
reserves = 4.50
earnback = 16.16

[cost_allocation.everything]
stripe = 2.04
storage = 6.00
support = 5.00
engineering = 6.00
reserves = 7.50
earnback = 33.46


# ─── Runway disclosure (transparency block on /docs/about/economics) ─────
#
# Operator-set. Refreshed quarterly at sprint close, alongside the
# /changelog recap. The paying-creator count on the page is pulled live
# from the DB; this number is the cash-runway bucket.
#
# Units: quarters at current burn (whole-number bucket; we round down
# rather than mislead in either direction).
#
# A value of 0 means "not yet published" — the page renders without a
# number until the first quarterly refresh sets it.
[runway]
# 17 = $190K committed funding ÷ $3,580/mo current actual burn (ops + $3K
# salary), rounded down. Excludes the draw-on-request $50K reserve (would be
# 22). Basis: server-internal/business/financial_dashboard.md. Refresh at
# sprint close — bump if burn rises (Year 2 $5K salary) or funding changes.
quarters = 17
last_updated_iso = "2026-06-04"