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# MNW Business Assumptions: Machine-Readable Source of Truth |
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# |
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# Status: draft / not yet consumed by tooling. Target consumer is a future |
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# docengine feature that substitutes `{{ key }}` placeholders in markdown |
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# at build time. See `MNW/server/docs/todo.md` § "Docengine: assumption |
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# substitution" for the proposed implementation. |
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# |
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# Until that feature ships, this file is informational. The canonical |
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# values still live in the markdown docs listed in each section header. |
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# |
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# Conventions: |
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# - All currency in USD unless suffixed `_eur`. |
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# - All time in months unless suffixed `_days` / `_years`. |
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# - Percentages as decimals (0.029 not 2.9). |
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# - Each section names the canonical markdown source. |
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# - Open decisions tagged `# OPEN:`: these are placeholder values |
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# pending founder approval per `pricing.md` §7 and `reserve_policy.md` §8. |
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# |
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# As of: 2026-05-16 |
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# Last manual-verified: 2026-05-16 |
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|
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|
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# ─── Expenses (canonical: expenses.md) ──────────────────────────────────── |
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[expenses] |
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F_monthly = 580 # Total fixed monthly burn (rounded from $579.08) |
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F_monthly_exact = 579.08 |
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as_of = "2026-05-16" |
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|
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[expenses.lines] |
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hetzner = 31.00 |
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coworking_industrious = 332.00 |
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claude_code = 200.00 |
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fastmail = 5.00 |
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domains = 2.00 |
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cloudflare = 0.00 |
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# Zero on purpose for the alpha: the free tier covers 100 mails a month and |
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# nothing here is sending yet. Postmark's real shape is $15/mo at 10k plus |
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# roughly $0.70-0.82 per 1,000 above that, so price this line the month |
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# broadcast volume becomes real rather than leaving the 0 to be believed. |
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postmark = 0.00 |
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apple_developer_amortized = 8.25 # $99/yr ÷ 12 |
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co_llc_periodic_amortized = 0.83 # $10/yr ÷ 12 |
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|
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|
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# ─── Stripe fees (canonical: stripe_fees.md) ────────────────────────────── |
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[stripe] |
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percent = 0.029 # US standard online card |
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fixed = 0.30 # Per-transaction flat fee, USD |
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dispute_fee = 15.00 # Charged once at dispute creation |
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instant_payout_us_pct = 0.015 # US/AU/NZ/AE region (was incorrectly cited as flat 1%) |
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instant_payout_intl_pct = 0.010 # CA/EU/UK/SG/NO/HK/MY region |
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instant_payout_min = 0.50 |
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chargeback_protection_pct = 0.004 # Stripe Radar add-on (fraud-only) |
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tax_pct = 0.005 # Stripe Tax per transaction |
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|
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[stripe.connect_standard] |
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# What MNW currently uses for creator subs. |
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per_account_fee = 0 |
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per_payout_fee = 0 |
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payout_volume_pct = 0 |
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|
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[stripe.connect_express] |
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# Reference only: not used by MNW for creators. |
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per_active_account = 2.00 |
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per_payout = 0.25 |
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payout_volume_pct = 0.0025 |
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|
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[stripe.instant_payout] |
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# Nested form of the flat instant_payout_* keys above; substituted into |
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# legal/payments.md and guide/stripe.md as {{ stripe.instant_payout.* }}. |
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# Kept alongside the flat form for backward compatibility. |
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us_pct = 0.015 |
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intl_pct = 0.010 |
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min_usd = 0.50 |
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|
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|
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# ─── Policy commitments (canonical: guarantees.md) ─────────────────────── |
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# Time-based commitments that appear verbatim across guarantees.md, pricing.md, |
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# tiers.md, faq.md, fan-guide.md, account-lifecycle.md, generative-ai.md, and |
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# how-we-work.md. Semantically distinct even where the number matches today. |
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[policy] |
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buyer_access_days = 90 # guarantees §Buyer Access, post-close fan download window |
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shutdown_notice_days = 90 # guarantees §Shutdown, §Continuity |
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price_change_notice_days = 90 # guarantees §Price Stability, pricing.md |
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grandfather_months = 12 # guarantees §Price Stability |
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cancellation_grace_days = 30 # tiers.md §Cancellation, getting-started.md |
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content_archive_months = 12 # guarantees §Content Archive (planned) |
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generative_ai_notice_days = 30 # generative-ai.md §Governance |
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|
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|
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# ─── Uptime (canonical: guarantees.md §Availability) ───────────────────── |
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[uptime] |
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target_pct = 0.995 |
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target_downtime_hours_year = 44 # (1 - 0.995) × 8760 ≈ 43.8, rounded up |
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|
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|
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# ─── Broadcasts (canonical: tiers.md, mailing-lists.md) ────────────────── |
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[broadcasts] |
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per_day = 1 |
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recipients_per_send = 10000 |
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# Display string with thousands separator; docengine has no thousands filter |
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# so the display form lives here (same pattern as `cohort.cap_display`). |
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recipients_per_send_display = "10,000" |
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|
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|
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# ─── Monthly mail cap (canonical: src/db/mail_caps.rs) ─────────────────── |
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# A soft maximum on total mails one creator sends per billing month, protecting |
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# the shared Postmark IP pool from one creator's fan-out. Soft: the creator sees |
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# the count, is warned before the cap, and is refused with a message rather than |
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# throttled silently. An increase is granted per account on application. |
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# |
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# RATIFIED 2026-08-30 (Max, GoingsOn mnw-server 7cf9e855). Flat across tiers: |
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# tier decides only how readily an increase is granted, which keeps the whole |
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# mechanism on the application path and the pricing page to one line. Held at |
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# 25,000 rather than raised: the cap bounds blast radius from a compromised |
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# account, not a creator's honest month, and the 1-broadcast-per-day limit |
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# already bounds the daily damage. A 2,000-person list mailed weekly is 8,000 a |
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# month and is uneventful. Postmark's marginal rate is roughly $0.70-0.82 per |
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# 1,000, so a creator sitting at the cap costs about $20 against Basic's $16 -- |
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# reachable only by someone already in a conversation with us. |
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[mail_cap] |
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basic = 25000 |
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small_files = 25000 |
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big_files = 25000 |
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everything = 25000 |
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# A creator with no active subscription still sends: announcements go out from a |
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# project whether or not the tier subscription lapsed. Lower, because there is no |
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# revenue behind it, and above any honest use of a free account. |
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no_subscription = 5000 |
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# Display string with thousands separator, for the public copy that has to state |
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# the monthly bound beside the per-send one. Same pattern as |
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# `broadcasts.recipients_per_send_display`; keep in sync with the tier values |
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# above, which are flat. |
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monthly_display = "25,000" |
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# Where the warning band starts, as a fraction of the effective cap. A ratio |
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# rather than a fixed remainder so a raised cap warns proportionally. |
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warn_at_fraction = 0.8 |
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|
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|
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# ─── Fan+ (canonical: fan-plus.md) ─────────────────────────────────────── |
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[fan_plus] |
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monthly_price_usd = 8 |
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# Per-fan monthly credit allowance; funded by Fan+ subscription revenue, |
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# not per-account overhead. Fan-only: creators don't receive it. |
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monthly_credit_usd = 5 |
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|
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|
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# ─── SyncKit developer billing (canonical: src/synckit_billing.rs) ─────── |
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# The Rust constants are authoritative; this block mirrors them so the public |
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# copy in site-docs/public/developer/synckit.md substitutes instead of |
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# hardcoding. `tests/assumptions.rs` fails if the two drift. |
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[synckit] |
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storage_usd_per_gb_month = 0.03 # STORAGE_RATE_CENTS_PER_GB |
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invoice_floor_usd = 0.31 # BASE_FLOOR_CENTS, smallest charge clearing Stripe's fee |
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min_priced_gb = 1 # implied by validate_knobs (> 0) |
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max_priced_gb = 10240 # MAX_STORAGE_GB (10 TiB) |
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max_priced_display = "10 TB" # display form of max_priced_gb |
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|
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|
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# ─── Hetzner prices (canonical: hetzner_prices.md) ──────────────────────── |
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[hetzner] |
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fx_eur_to_usd = 1.085 # Verify when FX moves >5% |
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|
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# Compute SKUs (EUR/mo) |
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ccx13_eur = 13.10 # 2 dedicated vCPU / 8 GB / 80 GB, production |
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ccx23_eur = 30.00 # 4 dedicated vCPU / 16 GB / 160 GB |
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cpx11_eur = 3.85 # 2 shared vCPU / 2 GB / 40 GB |
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cpx31_eur = 13.10 # 4 shared vCPU / 8 GB / 160 GB |
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cx22_eur = 4.59 # 2 shared vCPU / 4 GB / 40 GB |
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|
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# Storage and bandwidth |
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object_storage_eur_per_tb = 5.99 |
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object_storage_included_tb = 1 |
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egress_eur_per_tb_overage = 1.00 |
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egress_included_per_server_tb = 1 |
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volume_eur_per_gb = 0.044 |
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ipv4_eur = 0.60 |
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backup_pct_of_server = 0.20 |
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|
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|
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# ─── Tier prices (canonical: pricing.md) ────────────────────────────────── |
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[tiers.founding] |
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# Founder pricing: exactly 50% of standard sticker, locked for life. Active |
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# until the founder window closes (1,000 creators OR exit-beta, whichever |
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# first). Decision 2026-05-18; raised to 8/12/18/30 on 2026-05-31 to track |
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# the standard-tier raise; reset to Refined-A (4/7/9/12) on 2026-07-08 per |
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# pricing_interrogation_2026_07.md §6. |
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basic = 4 |
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small_files = 7 |
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big_files = 9 |
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everything = 12 |
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|
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[tiers.standard] |
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# Refined-A sticker: set 2026-07-08 per pricing_interrogation_2026_07.md §6. |
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# Priced against residency-scale labor ($41.5/hr Y1 support, ~$50/hr blended |
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# engineering) rather than the earlier $80/hr market rate, with right-sized |
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# Basic (10GB) and Small Files (100GB) envelopes. Founder rate is exactly |
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# 50% of these. History: 16/24/36/60 (2026-05-31), 12/18/24/40 (earlier). |
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basic = 8 |
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small_files = 14 |
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big_files = 18 |
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everything = 24 |
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|
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# ─── Tier envelope limits (storage caps + file size caps) ──────────────── |
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# Per-tier file-size envelope. Public-facing copy substitutes these via |
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# {{ tier_limits.* }} so the toml is the single source of truth and a future |
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# limit change is a one-line edit. Stored as display strings (no NBSP, no |
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# trailing periods) because that's the form the docs always need. |
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# |
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# `[tier_bytes]` below carries the same envelopes as machine-readable integer |
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# byte counts: that's the form Rust needs for upload gating, storage-cap |
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# accounting, and the metrics fill-ratio SQL. Docengine validates that each |
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# `tier_bytes.<k>` parses back to the matching `tier_limits.<k>` string, so |
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# a drift between the two forms fails at boot instead of shipping to prod. |
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[tier_limits] |
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# Refined-A envelopes (2026-07-08): Basic shrunk to 5MB/10GB and Small Files |
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# total shrunk to 100GB to make the tier ladder honest to actual content shape |
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# rather than "which tier gives me headroom I'll never use." Big Files and |
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# Everything envelopes unchanged. |
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basic_per_file = "5MB" |
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basic_total = "10GB" |
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small_files_per_file = "500MB" |
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small_files_total = "100GB" |
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big_files_per_file = "20GB" |
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big_files_total = "500GB" |
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everything_per_file = "20GB" |
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everything_total = "500GB" |
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|
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[tier_bytes] |
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# Binary units (KB = 1024 B). Must match [tier_limits] display strings above. |
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basic_per_file = 5242880 # 5 MB |
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basic_total = 10737418240 # 10 GB |
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small_files_per_file = 524288000 # 500 MB |
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small_files_total = 107374182400 # 100 GB |
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big_files_per_file = 21474836480 # 20 GB |
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big_files_total = 536870912000 # 500 GB |
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everything_per_file = 21474836480 # 20 GB |
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everything_total = 536870912000 # 500 GB |
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|
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|
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[annual_discount] |
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# Annual billing is 10% off the monthly × 12 total at every tier, founder |
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# and standard. Two-digit discount, clean pitch. Decision 2026-05-18. |
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# |
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# What this actually covers: |
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# - Stripe per-transaction fees ($0.30 each, charged 12x for monthly vs 1x |
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# for annual): saves MNW ~$3.30/yr per customer regardless of tier. |
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# - The 2.9% percent fee is identical either way (a wash). |
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# - At Basic, 10% off ≈ the literal Stripe saving (close to pass-through). |
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# - At Everything, 10% off ($36/yr) > the Stripe saving ($3.30/yr); MNW |
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# absorbs the difference (~$15/yr per Everything customer at founder |
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# pricing, ~$32/yr per Everything customer at sticker) as a cashflow + |
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# reduced-billing-failure benefit. Defensible but not pure pass-through. |
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# |
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# Computed values (monthly × 12 × 0.9, rounded to nearest dollar): |
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# Founder: $86 / $130 / $194 / $324 |
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# Standard: $173 / $259 / $389 / $648 |
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multiplier = 0.9 |
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months_equivalent_free = 1.2 # 10% of 12 months |
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|
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|
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# ─── Tier mix (canonical: tier_mix.md) ──────────────────────────────────── |
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[tier_mix.assumed] |
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# Pre-launch placeholder distribution. A4 in assumptions.md. |
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# Updated monthly from SQL once creators exist. |
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basic_pct = 0.40 |
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small_files_pct = 0.30 |
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big_files_pct = 0.20 |
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everything_pct = 0.10 |
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|
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|
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# ─── Reserve policy (canonical: reserve_policy.md) ──────────────────────── |
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[reserve] |
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# OPEN: all values in this block per reserve_policy.md §8 |
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|
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T_fixed_months = 12 # OPEN: §8 item 1 |
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S_legal = 50000 # OPEN: §8 item 2, pre-quote |
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S_shock = 5000 # OPEN: §8 item 3 |
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|
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R_opp = 10000 # OPEN: §8 item 4 |
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rho_annual = 0.50 # OPEN: §8 item 5, max % of R_opp/yr |
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rho_incident = 0.25 # OPEN: §8 item 6, max % of R_opp/decision |
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|
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surplus_split_reserve = 0.20 # OPEN: §8 item 7, steady state |
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surplus_split_earnback = 0.80 |
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# Sum must equal 1.0 |
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|
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transition_buffer_pct = 1.00 # OPEN: §8 item 10, multiplier on R_cap before personal-to-company transition |
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|
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|
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# ─── Cohort (canonical: pricing.md) ─────────────────────────────────────── |
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[cohort] |
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# OPEN: all values per pricing.md §7 |
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|
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cap_count = 1000 # Decided 2026-05-31; raised from 500 to match public copy in tiers.md / pricing.md. |
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cap_display = "1,000" # Display string with thousands separator; substituted via {{ cohort.cap_display }}. Keep in sync with cap_count. |
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cap_months = 12 # OPEN: §7 item 1, or first M months (whichever first) |
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lock_duration = "lifetime" # OPEN: §7 item 4, lifetime-of-subscription |
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# Counting rule (cumulative vs active): see sops/founding-cohort-tracking.md, founder decision pending |
| 300 |
|
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|
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# ─── Per-creator marginal cost inputs (canonical: assumptions.md A1-A10) ─ |
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# All currently unmeasured: pre-launch placeholders. |
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[creator_marginal] |
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storage_basic_gb = 0.05 # A1: ~50 MB (right-sized 2026-07-08 alongside 10GB Basic envelope) |
| 306 |
storage_small_files_gb = 2 # A2: ~2 GB |
| 307 |
storage_big_files_gb = 10 # A3: ~10 GB |
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storage_everything_gb = 30 # A10: tier-dependent, placeholder |
| 309 |
storage_cost_per_gb_per_month = 0.0065 # = €5.99/TB-mo × FX |
| 310 |
egress_origin_hit_assumed_pct = 0.10 # A6: Cloudflare cache absorbs ~90% (assumed) |
| 311 |
chargeback_rate_tier_subs = 0.001 # A12: 0.1% for recurring (lower than one-shot) |
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|
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|
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# ─── Derived values (for docengine feature; NOT stored: computed) ──────── |
| 315 |
# |
| 316 |
# These are documented here for the future implementation. The docengine |
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# feature should compute them from the values above. Listed as commented |
| 318 |
# pseudo-code; actual implementation belongs in Rust. |
| 319 |
# |
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# R_cap = T_fixed_months · F_monthly + S_legal + S_shock |
| 321 |
# = 12 · 580 + 50000 + 5000 = 61960 |
| 322 |
# |
| 323 |
# ARPU_founding = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.founding[k]) |
| 324 |
# = 0.4·8 + 0.3·12 + 0.2·18 + 0.1·30 = 13.40 |
| 325 |
# |
| 326 |
# ARPU_standard = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.standard[k]) |
| 327 |
# = 0.4·16 + 0.3·24 + 0.2·36 + 0.1·60 = 26.80 |
| 328 |
# |
| 329 |
# stripe_fee(amount) = stripe.percent · amount + stripe.fixed |
| 330 |
# stripe_fee_basic_std = 0.029 · 16 + 0.30 = 0.76 |
| 331 |
# stripe_fee_small_std = 0.029 · 24 + 0.30 = 1.00 |
| 332 |
# stripe_fee_big_std = 0.029 · 36 + 0.30 = 1.34 |
| 333 |
# stripe_fee_ev_std = 0.029 · 60 + 0.30 = 2.04 |
| 334 |
# |
| 335 |
# break_even(rate_class) = F_monthly / (ARPU_{rate_class} − marginal_avg) |
| 336 |
# break_even_standard = 580 / (26.80 − 1) ≈ 22.5 creators |
| 337 |
# break_even_founding = 580 / (13.40 − 1) ≈ 46.8 creators |
| 338 |
# |
| 339 |
# surplus(N, rate_class) = N · (ARPU − marginal) − F_monthly |
| 340 |
# surplus(100, "standard") = 100 · 25.80 − 580 = 2000 |
| 341 |
# surplus(500, "standard") = 500 · 25.80 − 580 = 12320 |
| 342 |
# |
| 343 |
# fill_time_months(N) = (R_cap + R_opp) / surplus(N, "standard") |
| 344 |
# fill_time(100) = 71960 / 2000 ≈ 36 mo |
| 345 |
# fill_time(500) = 71960 / 12320 ≈ 6 mo |
| 346 |
# |
| 347 |
# infra_cost(tier, N) = storage_{tier}_gb · storage_cost_per_gb_per_month |
| 348 |
# + egress_share + stripe_fee(price) + F_monthly/N |
| 349 |
# |
| 350 |
# Validation rules the build step should enforce: |
| 351 |
# - 100 < F_monthly < 10000 (typo guard) |
| 352 |
# - sum(tier_mix.*) = 1.00 (tier mix must sum to 100%) |
| 353 |
# - surplus_split_reserve + surplus_split_earnback = 1.00 |
| 354 |
# - 0 < rho_annual ≤ 1 |
| 355 |
# - 0 < rho_incident ≤ 1 |
| 356 |
# - rho_incident ≤ rho_annual (single decision ≤ annual budget) |
| 357 |
# - All `tiers.founding[k]` ≤ `tiers.standard[k]` |
| 358 |
# - cap_count > 0, cap_months > 0 |
| 359 |
|
| 360 |
|
| 361 |
# ─── Runway disclosure (transparency block on /docs/about/economics) ───── |
| 362 |
# |
| 363 |
# Operator-set. Refreshed quarterly at sprint close, alongside the |
| 364 |
# /changelog recap. The paying-creator count on the page is pulled live |
| 365 |
# from the DB; this number is the cash-runway bucket. |
| 366 |
# |
| 367 |
# Units: quarters at current burn (whole-number bucket; we round down |
| 368 |
# rather than mislead in either direction). |
| 369 |
# |
| 370 |
# A value of 0 means "not yet published": the page renders without a |
| 371 |
# number until the first quarterly refresh sets it. |
| 372 |
[runway] |
| 373 |
# 17 = $190K committed funding ÷ $3,580/mo current actual burn (ops + $3K |
| 374 |
# salary), rounded down. Excludes the draw-on-request $50K reserve (would be |
| 375 |
# 22). Basis: server-internal/business/financial_dashboard.md. Refresh at |
| 376 |
# sprint close: bump if burn rises (Year 2 $5K salary) or funding changes. |
| 377 |
quarters = 17 |
| 378 |
last_updated_iso = "2026-06-04" |
| 379 |
|
| 380 |
|
| 381 |
# ─── Fee calculator (canonical: this file + stripe_fees.md) ────────────── |
| 382 |
# |
| 383 |
# Powers the public /pricing calculator. Consumed by MNW's |
| 384 |
# `src/fee_calculator.rs` (parsed directly from this file, not through |
| 385 |
# docengine's scalar lookup, so the loader can panic at startup on a bad |
| 386 |
# value). Stripe's own fees are read from the [stripe] block above. |
| 387 |
# |
| 388 |
# There are no competitor fee tables here any more, and that is the point. |
| 389 |
# The calculator asks the visitor for the other platform's percentage and |
| 390 |
# per-sale fee, so nothing in this repo is a claim about somebody else's |
| 391 |
# pricing page and nothing here goes stale. |
| 392 |
# |
| 393 |
# Monthly model, with the visitor's dials on the right-hand side: |
| 394 |
# gross = item_price * sales |
| 395 |
# mnw_net = gross - gross*stripe.percent - sales*stripe.fixed - tier_price |
| 396 |
# other_net = gross - gross*other_pct - sales*other_per_sale |
| 397 |
# MNW takes no cut, so its variable side is payment processing alone. The |
| 398 |
# other platform's two dials are its TOTAL deduction, its own cut plus |
| 399 |
# whatever processing it layers on, because that is the figure a creator can |
| 400 |
# read off a payout. |
| 401 |
# |
| 402 |
# The defaults below are only the opening position of each dial, picked so the |
| 403 |
# first render is a realistic mid-market scenario rather than a strawman: |
| 404 |
# a $25 item, 40 sales a month ($1,000 gross), against a platform on a ~10% |
| 405 |
# cut with ~2.9% + $0.30 processing layered on top, which nets out to the |
| 406 |
# ~12.6% + $0.30 written here. Pinned by `fee_calculator::tests`. |
| 407 |
[fee_calculator] |
| 408 |
item_price = 25 # dollars, opening position of the price dial |
| 409 |
sales_per_month = 40 # opening position of the volume dial |
| 410 |
other_pct = 0.126 # other platform's total percentage deduction |
| 411 |
other_per_sale = 0.30 # other platform's total flat fee per sale |
| 412 |
|