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1 # MNW Business Assumptions: Machine-Readable Source of Truth
2 #
3 # Status: draft / not yet consumed by tooling. Target consumer is a future
4 # docengine feature that substitutes `{{ key }}` placeholders in markdown
5 # at build time. See `MNW/server/docs/todo.md` § "Docengine: assumption
6 # substitution" for the proposed implementation.
7 #
8 # Until that feature ships, this file is informational. The canonical
9 # values still live in the markdown docs listed in each section header.
10 #
11 # Conventions:
12 # - All currency in USD unless suffixed `_eur`.
13 # - All time in months unless suffixed `_days` / `_years`.
14 # - Percentages as decimals (0.029 not 2.9).
15 # - Each section names the canonical markdown source.
16 # - Open decisions tagged `# OPEN:`: these are placeholder values
17 # pending founder approval per `pricing.md` §7 and `reserve_policy.md` §8.
18 #
19 # As of: 2026-05-16
20 # Last manual-verified: 2026-05-16
21
22
23 # ─── Expenses (canonical: expenses.md) ────────────────────────────────────
24 [expenses]
25 F_monthly = 580 # Total fixed monthly burn (rounded from $579.08)
26 F_monthly_exact = 579.08
27 as_of = "2026-05-16"
28
29 [expenses.lines]
30 hetzner = 31.00
31 coworking_industrious = 332.00
32 claude_code = 200.00
33 fastmail = 5.00
34 domains = 2.00
35 cloudflare = 0.00
36 postmark = 0.00
37 apple_developer_amortized = 8.25 # $99/yr ÷ 12
38 co_llc_periodic_amortized = 0.83 # $10/yr ÷ 12
39
40
41 # ─── Stripe fees (canonical: stripe_fees.md) ──────────────────────────────
42 [stripe]
43 percent = 0.029 # US standard online card
44 fixed = 0.30 # Per-transaction flat fee, USD
45 dispute_fee = 15.00 # Charged once at dispute creation
46 instant_payout_us_pct = 0.015 # US/AU/NZ/AE region (was incorrectly cited as flat 1%)
47 instant_payout_intl_pct = 0.010 # CA/EU/UK/SG/NO/HK/MY region
48 instant_payout_min = 0.50
49 chargeback_protection_pct = 0.004 # Stripe Radar add-on (fraud-only)
50 tax_pct = 0.005 # Stripe Tax per transaction
51
52 [stripe.connect_standard]
53 # What MNW currently uses for creator subs.
54 per_account_fee = 0
55 per_payout_fee = 0
56 payout_volume_pct = 0
57
58 [stripe.connect_express]
59 # Reference only: not used by MNW for creators.
60 per_active_account = 2.00
61 per_payout = 0.25
62 payout_volume_pct = 0.0025
63
64 [stripe.instant_payout]
65 # Nested form of the flat instant_payout_* keys above; substituted into
66 # legal/payments.md and guide/stripe.md as {{ stripe.instant_payout.* }}.
67 # Kept alongside the flat form for backward compatibility.
68 us_pct = 0.015
69 intl_pct = 0.010
70 min_usd = 0.50
71
72
73 # ─── Policy commitments (canonical: guarantees.md) ───────────────────────
74 # Time-based commitments that appear verbatim across guarantees.md, pricing.md,
75 # tiers.md, faq.md, fan-guide.md, account-lifecycle.md, generative-ai.md, and
76 # how-we-work.md. Semantically distinct even where the number matches today.
77 [policy]
78 buyer_access_days = 90 # guarantees §Buyer Access, post-close fan download window
79 shutdown_notice_days = 90 # guarantees §Shutdown, §Continuity
80 price_change_notice_days = 90 # guarantees §Price Stability, pricing.md
81 grandfather_months = 12 # guarantees §Price Stability
82 cancellation_grace_days = 30 # tiers.md §Cancellation, getting-started.md
83 content_archive_months = 12 # guarantees §Content Archive (planned)
84 generative_ai_notice_days = 30 # generative-ai.md §Governance
85
86
87 # ─── Uptime (canonical: guarantees.md §Availability) ─────────────────────
88 [uptime]
89 target_pct = 0.995
90 target_downtime_hours_year = 44 # (1 - 0.995) × 8760 ≈ 43.8, rounded up
91
92
93 # ─── Broadcasts (canonical: tiers.md, mailing-lists.md) ──────────────────
94 [broadcasts]
95 per_day = 1
96 recipients_per_send = 10000
97 # Display string with thousands separator; docengine has no thousands filter
98 # so the display form lives here (same pattern as `cohort.cap_display`).
99 recipients_per_send_display = "10,000"
100
101
102 # ─── Monthly mail cap (canonical: src/db/mail_caps.rs) ───────────────────
103 # A soft maximum on total mails one creator sends per billing month, protecting
104 # the shared Postmark IP pool from one creator's fan-out. Soft: the creator sees
105 # the count, is warned before the cap, and is refused with a message rather than
106 # throttled silently. An increase is granted per account on application.
107 #
108 # PROVISIONAL. These numbers are placeholders that clear the stated bias --
109 # a 2,000-person list mailed weekly is 8,000 a month and must be uneventful at
110 # every tier -- and they are not the priced answer. The real ones are being
111 # decided against what the tiers cost in GoingsOn mnw-server 7cf9e855. That is
112 # why they live here: replacing them is an edit to this file and a restart.
113 [mail_cap]
114 basic = 25000
115 small_files = 25000
116 big_files = 25000
117 everything = 25000
118 # A creator with no active subscription still sends: announcements go out from a
119 # project whether or not the tier subscription lapsed. Lower, because there is no
120 # revenue behind it, and above any honest use of a free account.
121 no_subscription = 5000
122 # Where the warning band starts, as a fraction of the effective cap. A ratio
123 # rather than a fixed remainder so a raised cap warns proportionally.
124 warn_at_fraction = 0.8
125
126
127 # ─── Fan+ (canonical: fan-plus.md) ───────────────────────────────────────
128 [fan_plus]
129 monthly_price_usd = 8
130 # Per-fan monthly credit allowance; funded by Fan+ subscription revenue,
131 # not per-account overhead. Fan-only: creators don't receive it.
132 monthly_credit_usd = 5
133
134
135 # ─── SyncKit developer billing (canonical: src/synckit_billing.rs) ───────
136 # The Rust constants are authoritative; this block mirrors them so the public
137 # copy in site-docs/public/developer/synckit.md substitutes instead of
138 # hardcoding. `tests/assumptions.rs` fails if the two drift.
139 [synckit]
140 storage_usd_per_gb_month = 0.03 # STORAGE_RATE_CENTS_PER_GB
141 invoice_floor_usd = 0.31 # BASE_FLOOR_CENTS, smallest charge clearing Stripe's fee
142 min_priced_gb = 1 # implied by validate_knobs (> 0)
143 max_priced_gb = 10240 # MAX_STORAGE_GB (10 TiB)
144 max_priced_display = "10 TB" # display form of max_priced_gb
145
146
147 # ─── Hetzner prices (canonical: hetzner_prices.md) ────────────────────────
148 [hetzner]
149 fx_eur_to_usd = 1.085 # Verify when FX moves >5%
150
151 # Compute SKUs (EUR/mo)
152 ccx13_eur = 13.10 # 2 dedicated vCPU / 8 GB / 80 GB, production
153 ccx23_eur = 30.00 # 4 dedicated vCPU / 16 GB / 160 GB
154 cpx11_eur = 3.85 # 2 shared vCPU / 2 GB / 40 GB
155 cpx31_eur = 13.10 # 4 shared vCPU / 8 GB / 160 GB
156 cx22_eur = 4.59 # 2 shared vCPU / 4 GB / 40 GB
157
158 # Storage and bandwidth
159 object_storage_eur_per_tb = 5.99
160 object_storage_included_tb = 1
161 egress_eur_per_tb_overage = 1.00
162 egress_included_per_server_tb = 1
163 volume_eur_per_gb = 0.044
164 ipv4_eur = 0.60
165 backup_pct_of_server = 0.20
166
167
168 # ─── Tier prices (canonical: pricing.md) ──────────────────────────────────
169 [tiers.founding]
170 # Founder pricing: exactly 50% of standard sticker, locked for life. Active
171 # until the founder window closes (1,000 creators OR exit-beta, whichever
172 # first). Decision 2026-05-18; raised to 8/12/18/30 on 2026-05-31 to track
173 # the standard-tier raise; reset to Refined-A (4/7/9/12) on 2026-07-08 per
174 # pricing_interrogation_2026_07.md §6.
175 basic = 4
176 small_files = 7
177 big_files = 9
178 everything = 12
179
180 [tiers.standard]
181 # Refined-A sticker: set 2026-07-08 per pricing_interrogation_2026_07.md §6.
182 # Priced against residency-scale labor ($41.5/hr Y1 support, ~$50/hr blended
183 # engineering) rather than the earlier $80/hr market rate, with right-sized
184 # Basic (10GB) and Small Files (100GB) envelopes. Founder rate is exactly
185 # 50% of these. History: 16/24/36/60 (2026-05-31), 12/18/24/40 (earlier).
186 basic = 8
187 small_files = 14
188 big_files = 18
189 everything = 24
190
191 # ─── Tier envelope limits (storage caps + file size caps) ────────────────
192 # Per-tier file-size envelope. Public-facing copy substitutes these via
193 # {{ tier_limits.* }} so the toml is the single source of truth and a future
194 # limit change is a one-line edit. Stored as display strings (no NBSP, no
195 # trailing periods) because that's the form the docs always need.
196 #
197 # `[tier_bytes]` below carries the same envelopes as machine-readable integer
198 # byte counts: that's the form Rust needs for upload gating, storage-cap
199 # accounting, and the metrics fill-ratio SQL. Docengine validates that each
200 # `tier_bytes.<k>` parses back to the matching `tier_limits.<k>` string, so
201 # a drift between the two forms fails at boot instead of shipping to prod.
202 [tier_limits]
203 # Refined-A envelopes (2026-07-08): Basic shrunk to 5MB/10GB and Small Files
204 # total shrunk to 100GB to make the tier ladder honest to actual content shape
205 # rather than "which tier gives me headroom I'll never use." Big Files and
206 # Everything envelopes unchanged.
207 basic_per_file = "5MB"
208 basic_total = "10GB"
209 small_files_per_file = "500MB"
210 small_files_total = "100GB"
211 big_files_per_file = "20GB"
212 big_files_total = "500GB"
213 everything_per_file = "20GB"
214 everything_total = "500GB"
215
216 [tier_bytes]
217 # Binary units (KB = 1024 B). Must match [tier_limits] display strings above.
218 basic_per_file = 5242880 # 5 MB
219 basic_total = 10737418240 # 10 GB
220 small_files_per_file = 524288000 # 500 MB
221 small_files_total = 107374182400 # 100 GB
222 big_files_per_file = 21474836480 # 20 GB
223 big_files_total = 536870912000 # 500 GB
224 everything_per_file = 21474836480 # 20 GB
225 everything_total = 536870912000 # 500 GB
226
227
228 [annual_discount]
229 # Annual billing is 10% off the monthly × 12 total at every tier, founder
230 # and standard. Two-digit discount, clean pitch. Decision 2026-05-18.
231 #
232 # What this actually covers:
233 # - Stripe per-transaction fees ($0.30 each, charged 12x for monthly vs 1x
234 # for annual): saves MNW ~$3.30/yr per customer regardless of tier.
235 # - The 2.9% percent fee is identical either way (a wash).
236 # - At Basic, 10% off ≈ the literal Stripe saving (close to pass-through).
237 # - At Everything, 10% off ($36/yr) > the Stripe saving ($3.30/yr); MNW
238 # absorbs the difference (~$15/yr per Everything customer at founder
239 # pricing, ~$32/yr per Everything customer at sticker) as a cashflow +
240 # reduced-billing-failure benefit. Defensible but not pure pass-through.
241 #
242 # Computed values (monthly × 12 × 0.9, rounded to nearest dollar):
243 # Founder: $86 / $130 / $194 / $324
244 # Standard: $173 / $259 / $389 / $648
245 multiplier = 0.9
246 months_equivalent_free = 1.2 # 10% of 12 months
247
248
249 # ─── Tier mix (canonical: tier_mix.md) ────────────────────────────────────
250 [tier_mix.assumed]
251 # Pre-launch placeholder distribution. A4 in assumptions.md.
252 # Updated monthly from SQL once creators exist.
253 basic_pct = 0.40
254 small_files_pct = 0.30
255 big_files_pct = 0.20
256 everything_pct = 0.10
257
258
259 # ─── Reserve policy (canonical: reserve_policy.md) ────────────────────────
260 [reserve]
261 # OPEN: all values in this block per reserve_policy.md §8
262
263 T_fixed_months = 12 # OPEN: §8 item 1
264 S_legal = 50000 # OPEN: §8 item 2, pre-quote
265 S_shock = 5000 # OPEN: §8 item 3
266
267 R_opp = 10000 # OPEN: §8 item 4
268 rho_annual = 0.50 # OPEN: §8 item 5, max % of R_opp/yr
269 rho_incident = 0.25 # OPEN: §8 item 6, max % of R_opp/decision
270
271 surplus_split_reserve = 0.20 # OPEN: §8 item 7, steady state
272 surplus_split_earnback = 0.80
273 # Sum must equal 1.0
274
275 transition_buffer_pct = 1.00 # OPEN: §8 item 10, multiplier on R_cap before personal-to-company transition
276
277
278 # ─── Cohort (canonical: pricing.md) ───────────────────────────────────────
279 [cohort]
280 # OPEN: all values per pricing.md §7
281
282 cap_count = 1000 # Decided 2026-05-31; raised from 500 to match public copy in tiers.md / pricing.md.
283 cap_display = "1,000" # Display string with thousands separator; substituted via {{ cohort.cap_display }}. Keep in sync with cap_count.
284 cap_months = 12 # OPEN: §7 item 1, or first M months (whichever first)
285 lock_duration = "lifetime" # OPEN: §7 item 4, lifetime-of-subscription
286 # Counting rule (cumulative vs active): see sops/founding-cohort-tracking.md, founder decision pending
287
288
289 # ─── Per-creator marginal cost inputs (canonical: assumptions.md A1-A10) ─
290 # All currently unmeasured: pre-launch placeholders.
291 [creator_marginal]
292 storage_basic_gb = 0.05 # A1: ~50 MB (right-sized 2026-07-08 alongside 10GB Basic envelope)
293 storage_small_files_gb = 2 # A2: ~2 GB
294 storage_big_files_gb = 10 # A3: ~10 GB
295 storage_everything_gb = 30 # A10: tier-dependent, placeholder
296 storage_cost_per_gb_per_month = 0.0065 # = €5.99/TB-mo × FX
297 egress_origin_hit_assumed_pct = 0.10 # A6: Cloudflare cache absorbs ~90% (assumed)
298 chargeback_rate_tier_subs = 0.001 # A12: 0.1% for recurring (lower than one-shot)
299
300
301 # ─── Derived values (for docengine feature; NOT stored: computed) ────────
302 #
303 # These are documented here for the future implementation. The docengine
304 # feature should compute them from the values above. Listed as commented
305 # pseudo-code; actual implementation belongs in Rust.
306 #
307 # R_cap = T_fixed_months · F_monthly + S_legal + S_shock
308 # = 12 · 580 + 50000 + 5000 = 61960
309 #
310 # ARPU_founding = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.founding[k])
311 # = 0.4·8 + 0.3·12 + 0.2·18 + 0.1·30 = 13.40
312 #
313 # ARPU_standard = Σ (tier_mix[k] · tiers.standard[k])
314 # = 0.4·16 + 0.3·24 + 0.2·36 + 0.1·60 = 26.80
315 #
316 # stripe_fee(amount) = stripe.percent · amount + stripe.fixed
317 # stripe_fee_basic_std = 0.029 · 16 + 0.30 = 0.76
318 # stripe_fee_small_std = 0.029 · 24 + 0.30 = 1.00
319 # stripe_fee_big_std = 0.029 · 36 + 0.30 = 1.34
320 # stripe_fee_ev_std = 0.029 · 60 + 0.30 = 2.04
321 #
322 # break_even(rate_class) = F_monthly / (ARPU_{rate_class} − marginal_avg)
323 # break_even_standard = 580 / (26.80 − 1) ≈ 22.5 creators
324 # break_even_founding = 580 / (13.40 − 1) ≈ 46.8 creators
325 #
326 # surplus(N, rate_class) = N · (ARPU − marginal) − F_monthly
327 # surplus(100, "standard") = 100 · 25.80 − 580 = 2000
328 # surplus(500, "standard") = 500 · 25.80 − 580 = 12320
329 #
330 # fill_time_months(N) = (R_cap + R_opp) / surplus(N, "standard")
331 # fill_time(100) = 71960 / 2000 ≈ 36 mo
332 # fill_time(500) = 71960 / 12320 ≈ 6 mo
333 #
334 # infra_cost(tier, N) = storage_{tier}_gb · storage_cost_per_gb_per_month
335 # + egress_share + stripe_fee(price) + F_monthly/N
336 #
337 # Validation rules the build step should enforce:
338 # - 100 < F_monthly < 10000 (typo guard)
339 # - sum(tier_mix.*) = 1.00 (tier mix must sum to 100%)
340 # - surplus_split_reserve + surplus_split_earnback = 1.00
341 # - 0 < rho_annual ≤ 1
342 # - 0 < rho_incident ≤ 1
343 # - rho_incident ≤ rho_annual (single decision ≤ annual budget)
344 # - All `tiers.founding[k]` ≤ `tiers.standard[k]`
345 # - cap_count > 0, cap_months > 0
346
347
348 # ─── Runway disclosure (transparency block on /docs/about/economics) ─────
349 #
350 # Operator-set. Refreshed quarterly at sprint close, alongside the
351 # /changelog recap. The paying-creator count on the page is pulled live
352 # from the DB; this number is the cash-runway bucket.
353 #
354 # Units: quarters at current burn (whole-number bucket; we round down
355 # rather than mislead in either direction).
356 #
357 # A value of 0 means "not yet published": the page renders without a
358 # number until the first quarterly refresh sets it.
359 [runway]
360 # 17 = $190K committed funding ÷ $3,580/mo current actual burn (ops + $3K
361 # salary), rounded down. Excludes the draw-on-request $50K reserve (would be
362 # 22). Basis: server-internal/business/financial_dashboard.md. Refresh at
363 # sprint close: bump if burn rises (Year 2 $5K salary) or funding changes.
364 quarters = 17
365 last_updated_iso = "2026-06-04"
366
367
368 # ─── Fee calculator (canonical: this file + stripe_fees.md) ──────────────
369 #
370 # Powers the public /pricing calculator. Consumed by MNW's
371 # `src/fee_calculator.rs` (parsed directly from this file, not through
372 # docengine's scalar lookup, so the loader can panic at startup on a bad
373 # value). Stripe's own fees are read from the [stripe] block above.
374 #
375 # There are no competitor fee tables here any more, and that is the point.
376 # The calculator asks the visitor for the other platform's percentage and
377 # per-sale fee, so nothing in this repo is a claim about somebody else's
378 # pricing page and nothing here goes stale.
379 #
380 # Monthly model, with the visitor's dials on the right-hand side:
381 # gross = item_price * sales
382 # mnw_net = gross - gross*stripe.percent - sales*stripe.fixed - tier_price
383 # other_net = gross - gross*other_pct - sales*other_per_sale
384 # MNW takes no cut, so its variable side is payment processing alone. The
385 # other platform's two dials are its TOTAL deduction, its own cut plus
386 # whatever processing it layers on, because that is the figure a creator can
387 # read off a payout.
388 #
389 # The defaults below are only the opening position of each dial, picked so the
390 # first render is a realistic mid-market scenario rather than a strawman:
391 # a $25 item, 40 sales a month ($1,000 gross), against a platform on a ~10%
392 # cut with ~2.9% + $0.30 processing layered on top, which nets out to the
393 # ~12.6% + $0.30 written here. Pinned by `fee_calculator::tests`.
394 [fee_calculator]
395 item_price = 25 # dollars, opening position of the price dial
396 sales_per_month = 40 # opening position of the volume dial
397 other_pct = 0.126 # other platform's total percentage deduction
398 other_per_sale = 0.30 # other platform's total flat fee per sale
399